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Energy and Precious Metals Technical Analysis
Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Wed Jan 18 17 00:16 ET
Gold rally extended to fresh multi-week high of $1,218.77 a troy ounce and settle a few cents above the 1,215.00 level, with most of the intraday gains achieved before UK's May speech on Brexit. The bright metal was backed by Trump's comments about the dollar being too strong to be competitive, and held on to gains, despite easing risk aversion in the short term. Worldwide political woes, however, will likely keep gold on demand during the upcoming month, and technical readings support so, after spot surpassed a critical resistance, now support, the 38.2% retracement of the post-US election decline around 1,204.50. Technical indicators in the daily chart have extended their advances, with the RSI indicator now entering overbought territory and the Momentum heading sharply higher at fresh multi-month highs. The same chart shows that the 100 DMA stands at 1,223.60, the next major resistance to surpass. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators resumed their advances after a modest downward correction and stand above previous daily highs, whilst the 20 SMA extended its advance below the current level, supporting some further gains as long as the price holds above the 1,200 region.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Mon Jan 16 17 23:53 ET
Spot gold posted an intraday high of $1,208.54 a troy ounce as risk aversion dominated the scene during the first half of the day, closing the day marginally higher at 1,202.80. Renewed Brexit fears fueled demand for the safe-haven commodity, although the advance was limited ahead of UK's Prime Minister May speech on Tuesday, and the US holiday that kept traders away from their desks this Monday. The daily chart shows that gold was unable to close the day above the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily decline at 1,204.50, while in the same chart, indicators are retreating from near overbought readings, somehow indicating that buying interest has begun to ease. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the price remains above a bullish 20 SMA, currently at 1,198.90, the immediate intraday support, while the RSI turned modestly lower within positive territory and the Momentum holds neutral around its 100 level, limiting chances of a steeper advance.
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GOLD - Targets Further Upside Pressure On Price Extension Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Mon Jan 16 17 22:58 ET
GOLD - The commodity remains biased to the upside following its price extension the past week. This development leaves more strength to the upside in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,190.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,180.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,170.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,160.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,200.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,210.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,220.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,230.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to recover further higher.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Sun Jan 15 17 23:18 ET
Gold prices posted solid gains for a third consecutive week, with stop trading as high as $1,209.93 a troy ounce before settling around 1,198.20, the highest settlement in almost two months. A weaker dollar alongside with increased physical demand fueled the advance of the metal, although some follow-through the critical 1,200 is required to confirm a steadier recovery. Daily basis, gold pared gains around the 38.2% retracement of its latest monthly decline, confirming the corrective nature of the latest advance. In the same chart, the price is firmly above a bullish 20 DMA, while the 100 DMA presents a bearish slope around the 50% retracement of the same decline, making of the $1,230.00 region a critical resistance for the upcoming days. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart are losing upward strength, but holding near overbought levels, far from indicating a downward move. In the 4 hours chart, a bullish 20 SMA leads the way higher, offering an intraday dynamic support at 1,193.80, while technical indicators resumed their advances within positive territory, limiting chances of a bearish move.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Thu Jan 12 17 23:09 ET
Spot gold rallied up to $1,206.93 a troy ounce this Thursday, its highest since late November, and up for a fourth consecutive session. Dollar's weakness helped the pair extend its gains, although the bright metal was unable to gain past a major static resistance, the 38.2% retracement of its post-US election decline at 1,204.50. Anyway, the positive tone persists, and given that the market seems unwilling to resume dollar's buying, chances of further recoveries remain high. Technically, the daily chart shows that technical indicators have advanced further towards overbought territory, still heading north, whilst the 20 SMA turned sharply higher well below the current level. In the same chart, the 100 DMA maintains a strong bearish slope around 1,228, converging with the 50% retracement of the mentioned slide, the next major bullish target. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the metal is due to a downward correction as indicators are retreating from overbought readings, although the 20 SMA heads north well below the current level, providing a dynamic support at 1,189.70.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Wed Jan 11 17 23:56 ET
Gold prices edged higher this Thursday, after Donald Trump's press conference was closer to a media show than to a presidential statement. Investors remained clueless over the upcoming tax reform or infrastructure investment once he was done, while negative comments towards the pharmaceutical industry triggered some risk aversion that ended up benefiting safe-haven gold. Spot rallied up to $1,198.21 a troy ounce, its highest since November 23rd, and closed the day with gains a few cents above 1,191.00. The ongoing correction from multi-month highs seems poised to extend according to the daily chart, as technical indicators keep advancing near overbought readings, while the 20 SMA has definitively turned north far below the current level. In the 4 hours chart, the price recovered quickly above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators turned sharply higher after a modest downward move within positive territory, supporting the longer term perspective. The 38.2% retracement of the latest daily decline stands at 1,204.60, and an extension beyond it will confirm the bottom at 1,122, favoring further recoveries afterwards towards 1,280/1,300.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Tue Jan 10 17 23:07 ET
Gold prices kept advancing this Tuesday, with spot reaching 1,190.50, its highest since November 30th, to settle at $1,186.70 a troy ounce by the end of the US afternoon. The soft tone of the US currency has kept the commodity underpinned ever since it bottomed near $1,100 a troy ounce last December, but even after rising to a fresh six weeks´ high, the movement is seen as corrective, and further gains are not yet clear, particularly if Trump delivers in its first days at the office. Uncertainty ahead of the policies the upcoming US president will apply, and how they would affect the world's largest economy, is the only reason of gold´s gains. From a technical point of view, the daily chart presents a clear upward potential, as indicators continue rallying within positive territory, whilst the 20 SMA is turning higher far below the current level. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have partially lost their bullish strength, but remain within positive territory, while buying interest is still surging on declines towards a bullish 20 SMA, currently at 1,179.50.
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GOLD - Retains Upside Tone Despite Price Hesitation Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Tue Jan 10 17 22:06 ET
GOLD - The commodity took back its Friday losses to close higher on Monday. Tough seen hesitating, it still faces upside risk. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,170.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,160.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,150.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,140.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,190.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,200.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,210.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,220.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to recover further higher.
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Crude Oil Drops To Test Key Support Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Tue Jan 10 17 22:03 ET
Crude oil has had a bit of stop-start to 2017 and both oil contracts are still down on a year-to-date basis after rising a good 45% last year. Fundamentally or indeed technically nothing has changed, however. I still think oil is heading much higher in the coming months and thus view the slight struggle here as a normal hesitation in what essentially is a rising market. The OPEC’s decision to reduce its oil output was a game changer, which will likely remain the number one driver behind oil prices in the months to come. The market is curious as to whether the cartel and those non-OPEC producers who took part in the deal will honour their agreement or whether cracks will start to appear. I would be very surprised if producer nations breached their agreed quotas by noticeable margins because while that might be profitable in the short-term, it could be very costly in the long-term. Why sell more oil for less when there is a chance to sell less oil for more in the future?
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Gold Rebound Heading For Major Resistance Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Tue Jan 10 17 22:01 ET
For more than two weeks, the price of gold has been in a strong rebound from its late-December bottom around the $1125 level. This rebound follows a sustained drop in price that began from the July highs around $1375 and followed-through to the December lows. The current rebound has been prompted in large part by a tentative stalling and pullback in US dollar momentum after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December as expected.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Mon Jan 09 17 22:53 ET
Gold prices extended their gains to a fresh 6-week high this Monday, quoting as high as $1,186.09 a troy ounce and ending the day not far below it. The bright metal trimmed post-Payroll losses, and despite the advance is being moderated by speculation of a faster pace of rate hikes in the US, the rally could extend over the next few sessions. The buying potential is being backed by physical demand and technical readings, as in the daily chart, buying interest around the 23.6% retracement of the latest daily slump contains the downside, whilst the price extended far above its 20 SMA, and technical indicators have advanced to fresh 2-month highs within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has continued to provide an intraday dynamic support, and maintains its upward strength below the current level, while the RSI indicator heads north around 67, also supporting further gains. The Momentum indicator, however, is drawing a bearish divergence that still needs to be confirmed, pressuring the 100 level after being able to extend its advance between positive territory.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Sun Jan 08 17 23:52 ET
Spot gold closed with solid gains for a second consecutive week at $1,172.86 a troy ounce, having traded as high as 1,184.86 on Thursday, its highest in over a month. Despite demand for US-related attests resumed after the release of the monthly employment report, gold held on to gains, somehow confirming an interim bottom at December's low of 1,122.62. Technically, the advance is still seen as corrective in the longer term, as the price settled around the 23.6%, retracement of the post-election decline, and the commodity is at risk of resuming its decline any time, particularly if confidence in the US and the greenback persists. In the daily chart, technical indicators have pulled back modestly after approaching overbought territory, while the price is well above a flat 20 SMA, all of which limits chances of a downward move. In the 4 hours chart, the price holds above a bullish 20 SMA that crossed above the 100 and 200 ones, whilst technical indicators having turned flat within positive territory, after correcting overbought conditions, in line with the longer term outlook.
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GOLD - Sees Corrective Recovery Higher But With Caution Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Jan 08 17 23:16 ET
GOLD - The commodity closed higher the past but could face correction in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,160.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,150.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,140.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,130.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,180.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,190.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,200.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,250.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further on trend resumption.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Fri Jan 06 17 00:21 ET
Gold prices continued advancing this Thursday, with spot up to a fresh 5-week high of $1,184.86 a troy ounce. The bright metal closed the day around 1,181.70, gathering pace from a weaker dollar and a slide in US stocks, following FED's Minutes which included the word "uncertainty" fifteen times, tripling previous statement's number, and clearly indicating that policymakers fear upcoming Trump's decisions. Strong data coming from China also supported commodities, as the latest PMI showed steady signs of growth in the second world's largest economy. In the daily chart, gold has settled above the 23.6% retracement of the post-US election decline, a strong static support now at 1,173.10. Also, and in the same chart, technical indicators maintain their strong upward slopes near overbought readings, whilst the 20 DMA has lost its bearish slope and stands flat now around $40.00 below the current level. In the shorter term, the metal presents a bullish bias, as the price has broken above all of its moving averages, whilst the 20 SMA is about to surpass the 200 SMA after already crossing above the 100 SMA, and technical indicators hold within overbought readings, pausing their advance, but far from indicating upward exhaustion.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Wed Jan 04 17 23:25 ET
Spot gold surged to its highest in four weeks amid dollar's weakness, ending the day at $1,163.09 a troy ounce, holding on to gains after the release of soft FOMC Minutes. Helping the bright metal was the decision of Chinese government to raise Yuan's key reference rate, in attempt to steam capital outflows, and after the currency fell to its lowest in six years. The daily chart for the commodity shows that, while the price is still below the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily fall at 1,173.10, it advanced further above a flat 20 SMA. In the same chart, the Momentum indicator has lost upward potential but consolidates well above its mid-line, while the RSI indicator heads north at fresh over one-month highs, supporting the case for another leg higher. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators head higher within positive territory, whilst the 20 SMA offers an immediate dynamic support at 1,157.80. In this last chart, however, a bearish 200 SMA contained the advance, currently at 1,163.90.
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GOLD - Risk Turns Higher, Looks To Resume Recovery Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Wed Jan 04 17 00:29 ET
GOLD - The commodity reversed its intraday losses to close higher on Tuesday. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,150.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,140.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,130.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,120.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,170.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,180.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,190.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,200.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further on trend resumption.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Tue Jan 03 17 22:56 ET
Gold prices advanced to fresh 3-week highs, with spot settling at $1,159.50 a troy ounce after trading as high as 1,163.00. Gold gained at the beginning of the day, suffering a temporal setback after the DXY traded near 103.80, its highest in 14 years, but recovered ahead of the daily close as the dollar index retreated. Political woes worldwide have helped the metal bouncing late December, although hopes for three rate hikes in the US for this year dented the upward potential. The daily chart favors additional advances, as an early decline was contained by the 20 DMA, whilst technical indicators maintain their bullish slopes within positive territory, now at fresh 2-month highs. Still, the commodity needs to recover beyond 1,173.10, the 23.6% retracement of its latest decline to confirm further gains and an interim bottom. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have bounced from their mid-lines, maintaining their upward strength, whilst the price is developing now above a bullish 20 SMA, having met buying interest earlier in the day on a test of the 100 SMA.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Tue Jan 03 17 00:12 ET
The ongoing holiday kept the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange closed this Monday, the primary market for trading metals such as gold, silver, copper and aluminum, with spot gold latest close registered last Friday at $1,150.25 a troy ounce, its highest in two weeks. Activity will resume partially in Asia, as Japan and New Zealand will extend their holidays for one more day, but if the rest of the local share markets advance, gold will likely be in trouble, particularly considering latest dollar's strength. From a technical point of view, the latest recovery stalled short of the 23.6% retracement of the November/December slide at 1,173.10, the level to surpass to deny lower lows beyond December's one of 1,122.62. In the daily chart, indicators have turned back south after failing to overcome their mid-lines, whilst the price stands above a strongly bearish 20 SMA, currently at 1,145.60, the immediate support. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has advanced above the 100 SMA, both below the current level, while technical indicators have retreated from overbought readings, and head towards their mid-lines within positive territory. A break below the mentioned support should put the metal back in the bearish track, towards 1,122.62, December monthly low.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Fri Dec 23 16 00:02 ET
Gold prices edged marginally lower this Thursday, with spot ending the day at $1,128.41 a troy ounce, undermined by persistent dollar's strength. Adding to the negative tone of the bright metal was subdued demand from jewelers and retailers in India, the world's largest consumer of gold. The technical perspective remains unchanged, with the risk clearly towards the downside, given that in the daily chart, the price has set a lower low and a lower high, whilst the RSI indicator has retreated after failing to reenter above 30, and heads south around 25. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart presents a technical neutral stance, with the price being capped by a horizontal 20 SMA and technical indicators heading nowhere within negative territory. The yearly low comes at 1,061.78, a probable bearish target on a break below the 1,100.00 mark.
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Gold Ripe For Potential Relief Rally Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu Dec 22 16 23:13 ET
The charts tell a clear story of the unrelenting plunge in gold prices since early November. This steep dive has been the result of several related factors, all of which have the potential to extend well into the new year. These largely Trump-driven factors include: the strong US dollar, rising inflation expectations leading to higher interest rates, and minimal perceived risk in the soaring equity markets.
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