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Energy and Precious Metals Technical Analysis
GOLD - Looks To Pullback On Correction Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Sep 25 16 22:06 ET
GOLD - With the commodity still trading below its key resistance we envisage a move lower in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,330.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,320.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,310.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,300.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,340.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,350.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,360.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,370.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further on correction.
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Gold Rises To Critical Level On Lower-For-Longer Policy Signals Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu Sep 22 16 22:46 ET
The price of gold extended its rebound modestly on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve provided some key signals on Wednesday that, despite a considerable probability of one Fed rate hike by the end of this year, the pace of any further rate hikes going forward will likely be even slower and more gradual than previously forecast.
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Silver Shines As Yields, Dollar Dip Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu Sep 22 16 22:44 ET
Precious metals have found strong support over the past couple of days, with gold surging back to $1340 and silver to $20.00 per troy ounce. The US dollar has weakened while benchmark government bond yields have fallen across the board once again. This is mainly due to a slightly more dovish Federal Reserve and as the Bank of Japan announced new set of policy measures aimed at extending its quantitative easing programme in order to overcook inflation. The lower government bond yields have boosted the appetite for racier assets like equities, while at the same time they have made precious metals – which, unlike bonds and stocks, pay no interest or dividend – appear more appealing to investors on a relative basis.
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Gold Struggles To Shine Ahead Of Central Bank Decisions Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Tue Sep 20 16 22:25 ET
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and US Federal Reserve are slated to reveal their monetary policy decisions on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the price of gold has been under consistent pressure in the past several weeks as its safe haven appeal has eroded in the face of relatively well-supported global markets. Despite this pressure, the upcoming central bank decisions could make a significantly positive impact on the price of gold, particularly if a dovish-talking Fed refrains from raising rates, as widely expected, and the US dollar drops as a result. In addition, any more BoJ easing further into negative rate territory could also help to support gold.
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CRUDE OIL - Medium Term Outlook Remains Lower Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Mon Sep 19 16 22:47 ET
CRUDE OIL - The pair continues to hold on to its downside pressure following a lower close the past week. On the downside, support resides at the 43.00 level where a break will expose the 42.00 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 41.00 level. Further down, support resides at the 40.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 44.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 45.00 level. A break above here will aim at the 51.00 level and then the 46.00 level followed by the 47.00 level. All in all, CRUDE OIL remains biased to the downside medium term.
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GOLD - Maintains Downside Pressure Towards 1,302.00 Zone Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Sep 18 16 21:34 ET
GOLD - With the commodity continuing to hold on to its downside pressure, more weakness is envisaged in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,300.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,290.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,280.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,270.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,320.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,330.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,340.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,350.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further on correction.
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Stagnating Gold Could See Boost On Fed Decision Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu Sep 15 16 22:34 ET
On Thursday, the Bank of England held interest rates and monetary policy steady, as widely expected, but still kept the door open for further possible easing this year. Attention has now turned to the US Federal Reserve, as well as the Bank of Japan, ahead of their potentially pivotal meetings next week. Ahead of the Fed meeting, a plethora of US economic data was released on Thursday, mostly worse than expected, which generally did not bode well for the prospects of a US rate hike by an already skittish Fed. Most notably, retail sales, core retail sales, the Producer Price Index, and industrial production were all significantly lower than expected.
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GOLD - Sees Further Corrective Pullback Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Sep 11 16 22:48 ET
GOLD - With the commodity declining on correction the past week, more weakness is envisaged in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,320.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,310.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,300.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,290.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,340.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,350.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,360.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,370.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to strengthen further on correction.
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WTI Surges As Crude Stockpiles Drop Sharply Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu Sep 08 16 22:43 ET
As if the API's estimate for a 12 million barrel drawdown in US stockpiles wasn't eye-catching, the official EIA data, released today, has surprised even the most optimistic of forecasts. The 14.5 million barrel decline was the biggest fall since 1999 and oil prices have absolutely soared higher. The good news is that we have also seen a sharp drop in stocks of gasoline. Obviously this is just one week's worth of data and it remains to be seen in the coming weeks and months whether the trend can be sustained. For oil prices to rise significantly, we will need to see some further large drops in US oil inventories as they are still near record high levels.
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Gold Poised For Breakout On 'Lower-For-Longer' Interest Rates Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu Sep 08 16 22:23 ET
Though the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its decision on Thursday to leave its monetary policy unchanged, as expected, it is still widely anticipated that the central bank will soon be in the position to extend its easing programs further. Meanwhile, the long-awaited 2nd rate hike in ten years by the US Federal Reserve has still failed to materialize, and may well have hit a further snag after a series of relatively weak US economic data releases within the past week.
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Crude Oil Rebounds From Critical Price Level Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Wed Sep 07 16 22:12 ET
Since Friday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US benchmark for crude oil has been rebounding from a critical price juncture around the $43 level. This rise has been driven primarily by tentative hopes for an agreement among Russia, Saudi Arabia, and potentially other OPEC members to limit oil production in the interest of steadying crude prices. Also helping to boost crude oil in the past few days has been a weaker US dollar, which has been pressured by diminished expectations of a September Fed rate hike due to a string of relatively weak US economic data since late last week.
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GOLD - Rallies, Eyes Further Upside Pressure Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Tue Sep 06 16 22:33 ET
GOLD - With the commodity rallying on Tuesday, further bullishness is likely. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,340.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,330.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,320.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,310.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,355.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,360.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,370.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,380.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to strengthen further on correction.
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Another Crude Roller-Coaster Ride For Oil Traders Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Mon Sep 05 16 22:42 ET
North American investors are away in observance of the Labor Day. Understandably, it has been a quiet day in FX, bond and stock markets. But for one particular market, it has been an exceptionally volatile day. Crude oil took a roller coaster ride, rising nearly 5% this morning before giving up much of those gains.
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GOLD - Rejects Lower Price, Eyes Recovery Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Sep 04 16 21:25 ET
GOLD - With the commodity rejecting higher prices the past week, a move higher on correction is envisaged. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,310.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,300.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,290.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,280.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,330.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,340.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,350.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,360.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to strengthen further on correction.
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Crude On A Slippery Rollercoaster Ride To Nowhere Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Wed Aug 31 16 22:46 ET
Over the past week and a half, crude oil prices have been on a rollercoaster ride. Within the large ranges, the force of gravity has generally worked against bullish speculators after the 3-week rally ended in mid-August when Brent hit $51 and WTI reached $49 a barrel again. The two oil contracts now find themselves at $48.20 and $45.95 a barrel, respectively. Still, compared to the lows of around $41.50 and $39.50 at the start of the month, August has been a good month for both oil contracts – provided we don't see a vicious sell-off later on in the session when the US weekly oil report is published. To some degree, oil's performance since the middle of the month can be explained away by the impact of the dollar, which has bounced back sharply during this period. As crude oil is denominated in the dollar, this makes it more expensive for holders of other currencies when the greenback appreciates. But the impact of the dollar on oil should be temporary, especially given that the price elasticity of demand for crude is considered relatively inelastic. Therefore, if the dollar were to appreciate significantly now as a result of further improvement in US data and a resulting rate rise from the Fed, crude oil may not necessarily go in the opposite direction. After all, the potential improvement in US economy would also imply stronger demand for oil.
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GOLD - Sees Bear Pressure On Corrective Weakness Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Aug 28 16 21:57 ET
GOLD - With the commodity continuing to face downside pressure, more weakness is envisaged. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,310.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,300.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,290.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,1280.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,335.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,345.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,350.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,360.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to strengthen further but faces bear threats.
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Crude Turns Positive Ahead Of Oil Data Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Wed Aug 24 16 21:55 ET
Oil prices swung wildly into the positive territory yesterday. The rally eventually came to a halt around the $50 handle for Brent and $48 for WTI, and both contracts have been trending lower from these levels until an hour or so ago. It looks like oil prices have now found some short-covering support ahead of today's official US crude oil inventories report, due at 15:30 BST (10:30 ET).
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Crude Rally Gathers Pace But Stocks Fail To Respond Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu Aug 18 16 22:39 ET
Crude's rally gathered pace on Thursday, with Brent oil surging through the $50 hurdle and WTI climbing above $48 a barrel, as we highlighted the possibility in our oil report yesterday. So far however, US equity indices have not followed oil higher, which serves as a reminder that correlations can and do break down or become weak from time to time. But if crude oil is able to sustain its gains in the coming days then this should obviously be good news for the energy sector, which may be enough to lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new unchartered territories soon. Indeed, with the likes of Chevron and Exxon being well off their mid-July highs, one could argue that they have some catching up to do with both oil prices and the wider stock markets in general. Either that, or the stock market participants do not believe that this crude oil rally will be sustained.
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Crude Stocks Fall More Than Expected, Gold Traders Await FOMC Minutes Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Wed Aug 17 16 22:05 ET
The official weekly crude oil inventories report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), released this afternoon, has confounded expectations in a positive way and oil prices have correspondingly surged to their best levels since early July. Whereas the American Petroleum Institute (API) had reported a 1 million barrel decline in US oil stocks and a large 2.2 million barrel build in gasoline inventories last night, today’s EIA data shows that the decrease in crude inventories was in fact more than double that figure at 2.5 million barrels while gasoline inventories actually also fell and by a large amount of 2.7 million barrel. Furthermore, the decline in Cushing stocks were confirmed to be 72,000 barrels.
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Crude Oil Prices Breakout Of Two-Month Downtrend Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Tue Aug 16 16 22:21 ET
Crude oil prices, including both the US West Texas Intermediate and international Brent crude benchmarks, continued to surge sharply on Tuesday, extending the recent two-week rebound and recovery. In the process of this rise, prices have also broken out further above the short-term downtrend that had been in place for more than two months, since the early June highs.
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