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Energy and Precious Metals Technical Analysis
Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Fri May 29 15 00:53 ET
SPOT GOLD closed higher on Thursday. The highrange close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it extends this week's decline, its low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing would confirm that a low has been posted.
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Crude Stocks Drop For 4th Week Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu May 28 15 21:26 ET
WTI crude oil managed to bounce off its worst levels following the publication of the latest crude stockpiles report from the US Energy Information Admiration (EIA), but remained in the red and was on course to end lower for a fifth day. Prior to the release of the EIA report, traders were evidently expecting to see a 'bad' number because the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) data last night had indicated that inventories had climbed by 1.3 million barrels last week. The consensus expectations for the EIA number were not overly optimistic either, calling for a decrease of only 1.5 million barrels. However the actual number surprised as it showed, first and foremost, a drawdown, and a relatively sharp one at that: 2.8 million barrels. This was thus the fourth consecutive decline in as many weeks. During this period, oil stocks have been reduced by 11.6 million barrels. The drawdown of 3.3 million barrels in gasoline stocks also surprised but this was somewhat less than the decline reported by the API (3.6 million barrels). So overall it was a bit of a mixed-bag to slightly positive oil report. But for WTI to recover meaningfully, we will need to see further sharp decreases in stockpiles for they still remain near historic high levels.
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Gold Holding Make-Or-Break Level At 1180…So Far Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu May 28 15 21:24 ET
Commodity bulls have had a rough couple of weeks across the board, with the broad CRB commodity index falling over 5% from the mid-May peak. The weakness has been widespread, with everything from industrial metals to agricultural commodities to oil all falling in tandem
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Wed May 27 15 23:53 ET
SPOT GOLD closed lower on Wednesday. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it extends this week's decline,its low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing would confirm that a low has been posted.
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Crude Testing Key Levels Ahead Of Oil Inventories Data Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Wed May 27 15 21:15 ET
The crude oil slump has continued for a fourth day in the case of WTI and second day for Brent. Both oil contracts have been weighed down by a sharp rally in the dollar which continues to exert strong pressure on commodities across the board. The greenback has now risen in seven out of the past eight trading sessions. Chiefly responsible for the stronger dollar has been the recent hawkish remarks from the Fed, and – to a lesser degree – a rebound in US macroeconomic data of late. Several Fed members including Chairwoman Janet Yellen have talked up the possibility of raising rates later this year, possibly at the FOMC’s September meeting. But for the dollar to extend its gains further in the near term, the market will probably need to see some more evidence that the economic recovery is really gathering momentum, enough to encourage the Fed to actually raise interest rate at some point this year. Unfortunately, there is not any US data scheduled for release today and the economic calendar for the remainder of the week looks fairly quiet. Therefore, the dollar bulls may decide to take profit on their positions and this could ease some pressure on commodities, at least in the short term anyway.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Wed May 27 15 00:14 ET
SPOT GOLD closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below the 20day moving average crossing onfirming that a shortterm top has been posted. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signalling that a shortterm top might be in or is near. If it extends Tuesday's decline, May's low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing would confirm that a low has been posted.
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Gold On Shaky Footing As Dollar Surges Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Tue May 26 15 21:20 ET
Gold has been absolutely battered today. It has already shed some $20 from its opening price and as we go to press it is still hovering near the day's lows. The considerably stronger dollar is chiefly responsible for this latest slide in the price of gold and other buck-denominated commodities. The greenback has found renewed strength in recent days thanks to a combination of stronger US data and a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Several Fed members including Chairwoman Janet Yellen have talked up the possibility of raising rates later this year, possibly at the FOMC's September meeting. Although they have acknowledged the soft patch in first quarter US data, most of the Fed officials think transitory factors such as the weather were to blame and thus foresee the return of brighter macroeconomic numbers later in the year. Their worry is that if the Fed does not act early enough then inflation may be overcooked. They argue that the potential cost of this strategy is probably less than that of waiting too long, which would require an aggressive rate hiking cycle. The sharper-than-expected rise in core CPI inflation we saw on Friday certainly argues the case for an earlier rate rise. The economic numbers released today, if not speculator, were also mostly better than expected including new homes sales and consumer confidence. If US data starts surprising to the upside now then we could certainly see further weakness in gold.
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IMM Positioning: Lighter And Lighter On USD Longs – But Still Stretched Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Danske Bank | Tue May 26 15 05:35 ET
Investors continued to liquidate USD longs and cover EUR shorts in the week ending 19 May, thus extending the tendency seen since late March for positioning to become less stretched short EUR/USD. However, the moves remain relatively small drops in an ocean of USD bulls and the market is still tight on EUR shorts and USD longs from a historical perspective. That said, price action following last week's upside US CPI surprise suggests that there is now more room to add USD longs than was the case just a few weeks ago. Indeed, we stress that IMM data remain a proxy of how the global (largely OTC) FX market is positioned. When US data start to surprise on the upside (as we look for for the remainder of Q2) positioning should not in itself be an obstacle for the USD to strengthen further.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Tue May 26 15 00:07 ET
SPOT GOLD closed higher on Monday. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening whenWednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signalling that a shortterm top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm top has been posted. If it renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the JanuaryMarchdecline crossing is the next upside target.
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Technical Analysis for Precious Metals Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Mon May 25 15 05:11 ET
Gold price is trading near the main resistance that been breached ant turned into support. Moreover, the price is trading around 38.2% Fibonacci correction located at 1205.60. Staying aside today is what we prefer, as we need to see how the price will interact with the aforesaid level 1205.60.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Mon May 25 15 01:59 ET
SPOT GOLD closed slightly lower on Friday. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signalling that a shortterm top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm top has been posted. If it renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the JanuaryMarchdecline crossing is the next upside target.
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GOLD - Declines Sharply On Sell Off Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun May 24 15 22:42 ET
GOLD - GOLD closed lower the past week leaving risk of a move lower on the cards. Support comes in at the 1,200.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,190.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,180.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,150.00 level and then the 1,130.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,220.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,235.00 followed by the 1,250.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,270.00 level followed by the 1,300.00 level. All in all, GOLD faces corrective weakness threats as we enter a new week with eyes on the 1.0900 level.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Thu May 21 15 23:42 ET
SPOT GOLD closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signalling that a shortterm top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm top has been posted. If it renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the JanuaryMarchdecline crossing is the next upside target.
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Silver: Ladies And Gentleman Of The Jury, What's Your Verdict? Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu May 21 15 21:17 ET
After briefly dropping below 15.00 late last year, silver has edged higher so far this year, but bulls have remained skeptical of the strength as long as the commodity remained below its declining 200-day MA. That all changed last week, when silver finally broke above that barrier, and prices have managed to hold above that barrier for more than a week now. As a second bullish sign, the metal's RSI indicator has formed a bullish channel over the last month, showing steadily increasing bullish momentum over that period.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Thu May 21 15 00:00 ET
SPOT GOLD closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signalling that a shortterm top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm top has been posted. If it renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the JanuaryMarchdecline crossing is the next upside target.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Tue May 19 15 23:48 ET
SPOT GOLD closed lower on Tuesday. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends last week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the JanuaryMarchdecline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm top has been posted.
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Crude Oil Plunges Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Tue May 19 15 22:25 ET
Both Brent and WTI oil contracts have dropped sharply today and are potentially on the verge of a major breakdown. Crude has clearly failed to respond to “good” news from the supply side of the equation with US oil inventories falling sharply for two consecutive weeks. Although stockpiles have now dropped by a good 6.1 million barrels, WTI has shed almost $4 from the high of $62.55 it hit on May 6 i.e. the same day when news of the first crude stocks decline since the start of the year was reported. Evidently, some sort of destocking was already priced in. It will be interesting to see how oil will react when the latest stockpiles data is released this week. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will report its figures tonight ahead of the official supply data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) tomorrow afternoon. If oil fails to bounce back once again then this recent sell-off may be more than just a correction. But it is not all about US oil inventories. Although crude output here is expected to drop back slightly this year, the OPEC continues to produce more oil than is needed as it seeks to defend its market share. So, the supply glut is here to stay and is merely shifting from one region to another. This will likely keep oil prices under pressure for the foreseeable future. Indeed, according to data from JODI, Saudi Arabia exported almost 8 million barrels of crude oil per day in March. This was the highest volume in more than nine years. Likewise, oil exports from Iraq – the second largest OPEC producer – reached the highest volume since JODI began reporting its data in 2007.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Mon May 18 15 22:59 ET
SPOT GOLD closed higher on Monday. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends last week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the JanuaryMarchdecline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm top has been posted.
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IMM Positioning: Long USD Bets Still In Stretched Territory Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Danske Bank | Mon May 18 15 06:18 ET
The USD index fell for the fifth consecutive week after Wednesday's disappointing retail sales and Friday's very weak University of Michigan consumer sentiment. The significant build in bullish dollar positions raises the vulnerability and sensitivity of the 'greenback' and the disappointing US data mean many of these positions have been unwound. Indeed, the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission IMM positioning data show in the week to 12 May speculators cut their USD exposure for the seventh consecutive week, equalling the length of the long position reductions seen at end-Q1 14 (page 2). However, non-commercial USD positioning probably remains stretched even after the recent sell-off (at Tuesday's close, positioning was very elevated at the 95th percentile). This highlights the more persistent EUR/USD sensitivity to the upside when US data disappoints, as there is still potential for more unwinding of long USD positions.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Sun May 17 15 23:44 ET
SPOT GOLD closed higher on Friday. The highrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends last week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the JanuaryMarchdecline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing would confirm that a shortterm top has been posted.
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