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Energy and Precious Metals Technical Analysis
IMM Positioning: Speculators Significantly Slash Bearish GBP Positions Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Danske Bank | Mon Aug 03 15 06:04 ET
IMM positioning data released on Friday revealed a continued shift in speculative GBP positioning as investors reduced their bearish positions vis-a-vis the USD for the second consecutive week. Measured in percentage of open interest, last week’s change in GBP positioning was the largest single week’s short covering in over a year and has sent non-commercial sterling positioning to the 45th percentile – the least bearish level since November 2014. The change reflects an improvement in UK data and not least recent hawkish comments from the Bank of England (BoE). Fundamentally, we still regard BoE to be ‘Fed light’ in the sense that we expect Governor Carney to postpone a rate hike until after the first Fed hike and the pace of UK rate normalisation to be slower. In light of the recent adjustment in positioning, we still regard the medium-term GBP/USD risk as skewed to the downside.
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Technical Analysis for Energy Markets Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Mon Aug 03 15 04:45 ET
Oil is stuck in main resistance of the bearish wave and below moving averages. However, prices are gradually approaching 88.6% Fibonacci at 46.15. Risk versus reward ratio is inappropriate, while trading near 46.15 makes it dangerous.
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Technical Analysis for Precious Metals Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Mon Aug 03 15 04:44 ET
By examining the four-hour chart, we will see the probability of forming double bottoms below 1086.00 levels. Additionally, we are witnessing stable moves above SMA20 and SMA50, while RSI is also stable above 50.00. However, we are not sure about the bullish tendencies, as bigger time-frames are negative.
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GOLD - Corrective Risk Developing Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Aug 02 15 21:45 ET
GOLD - With a marginal lower close seen the past following its price rejection, a move higher could be developing. Support comes in at the 1,080.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,069.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,040.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,000.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,210.08 level where a break will aim at the 1,225.000 followed by the 1,250.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,270.00 level followed by the 1,180.00 level.. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside medium term but faces corrective recovery threats.
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Technical Analysis for Energy Markets Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Fri Jul 31 15 06:15 ET
After moving above 48.65, oil failed to inch higher and is currently trading below moving averages 20 and 50 and below 13% Fibonacci. ADX started to show bearish tendencies and RSI14 moves below 50.00. Hence, we may witness bearish wave; noting that, oil is moving beyond the main resistance of the descending channel
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Technical Analysis for Precious Metals Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Fri Jul 31 15 06:13 ET
Gold is still bearishly below 1086.00 and that keeps chances for resuming bearishness. Attempts to move higher was stopped by 1100.00 psychological. We remain bearish, as ADX is negative, while trading remains below the below support and below 161.8% Fibonacci.
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Technical Analysis for Energy Markets Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Thu Jul 30 15 05:25 ET
Oil has declined yesterday and our intraday bearish outlook, as 13% Fibonacci at 48.65 was taken out, assisting prices to stabilize above the resistance of the downside channel and above SMA20.
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Technical Analysis for Precious Metals Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Thu Jul 30 15 05:24 ET
Gold is presently attempting to breach through 1086.00 -Fibonacci of 61.8%- and a break below this level will cause a new downside wave. The ADX indicator is turning into negativity, although RSI is moving within oversold territories, but failed to clear 30.00 levels. Therefore, we may witness a bearish wave with targets at 1051.00-1052.00 and may extend to 1030.00.
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CRUDE OIL - Triggers Correction, Eyes More Strengthen Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Thu Jul 30 15 00:05 ET
CRUDE OIL - With the commodity closing higher on further correction on Wednesday, it faces further upside pressure. On the downside, support lies at the 48.00 level where a break will expose the 47.00 level. A break will aim at the 46.00 level and then the 45.00 level. Below here will open the door for a run at the 44.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 50.00 level where a break will expose the 51.00 level followed by the 52.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 53.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside medium term.
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Technical Analysis for Energy Markets Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Wed Jul 29 15 06:01 ET
Oil failed to move higher, as inclines were trapped below the main resistance line of the descending channel, while four-hour candles prove that 78.6% at 48.00 represents a good resistance. Thereby, we will be bearish, targeting 46.15 since RSI is moving downwards and ADX started to reflect the strength of the bearishness once again.
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Technical Analysis for Precious Metals Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Wed Jul 29 15 06:00 ET
Gold has been trading within a narrow range during the Asian session today and during yesterday’s trading. The metal was trapped between 1086.00 and 1100.00. However, stability above 1086.00 may trigger bullish wave, as ADX and RSI are turning bullish.
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Technical Analysis for Energy Markets Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Tue Jul 28 15 05:27 ET
Oil resumed declining trading below 48.05 -78.6% Fibonacci- and that could extend the bearish wave towards 88.6% at 46.15. The bearish trend strength becomes lower as seen on ADX, while RSI shows oversold signs. The bearishness will depend on the 46.15 levels, but we will be bearish supported by moving averages over intraday basis.
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Technical Analysis for Precious Metals Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Tue Jul 28 15 05:26 ET
Gold failed to stabilize above 1100.00, but it is still trading above the string support of 1086.00. Moving above 1086.00 should trigger upside move, which could be just a correction, supported by RSI14 and the decline in trend strength on ADX.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Tue Jul 28 15 02:32 ET
SPOT GOLD closed higher due to short covering on Monday. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing would confirm that a shortterm low has been posted
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IMM Positioning - Speculators Increase USD Positioning Further Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Danske Bank | Mon Jul 27 15 07:07 ET
IMM positioning data released on Friday shows that speculators increased bullish USD positioning further. From a historical perspective, the change was not particularly significant although it has contributed to send speculative ‘greenback’ positioning to its most bullish level since the beginning of June. While a big share of the moves was versus the commodity currencies and the EUR, the majority was against the JPY (see page 2).
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Technical Analysis for Precious Metals Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Mon Jul 27 15 06:38 ET
Positively influenced by stability above 1086.00 and above main support line, gold attempts to move higher despite being covered by moving averages. ADX remains negative but we can use the defensive level of 1086.00 to be bullish over intraday basis and a break above 1117.00 will extend the wave, while failure to clear it will trigger downside movement.
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Technical Analysis for Energy Markets Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Mon Jul 27 15 06:37 ET
Oil trades around 78.6% Fibonacci, which was our previous defined target at 48.00 as seen on the provided chart. ADX shows the resumption of the bearishness, but RSI started to reflect obvious oversold signs. Therefore, we will be neutral over intraday basis; noting that, moving below 51.15 keeps the negative scenarios valid, while being capped by 49.20 is more negative.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Mon Jul 27 15 01:15 ET
SPOT GOLD closed lower due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing would confirm that a shortterm low has been posted.
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GOLD - Looks To Recover Higher Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Jul 26 15 22:42 ET
GOLD - Outlook for GOLD may remain biased to the downside in the medium term, but it faces a recovery higher threat. Support comes in at the 1,069.46 level where a break will aim at the 1,050.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,030.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,000.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,210.08 level where a break will aim at the 1,225.000 followed by the 1,250.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,270.00 level followed by the 1,180.00 level.. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside medium term but faces corrective recovery threats.
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Technical Analysis for Energy Markets Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Fri Jul 24 15 06:35 ET
Oil declined reaching the suggested target of 48.00 where 78.6% Fibonacci exists. The bearish wave depends on breaching the afore-mentioned level and the breakout is available due to negativity on ADX and moving averages.
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