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Energy and Precious Metals Technical Analysis
Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Wed Mar 04 15 23:43 ET
SPOT GOLD closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20day moving average crossing confirming that a shortterm top has been posted. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the AugustDecember decline crossing is the next upside target.
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Crude Inventories Increase Sharply…Again Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Wed Mar 04 15 22:41 ET
Prior to the release of the latest crude supply data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), WTI was higher on the day and for a time it was trading above $51 a barrel. Speculators were hoping that the recent trend of sharp increases in oil inventories would come to end after the American Petroleum Institute's (API) stockpiles report last night had shown 'only' a 2.9 million increase in US oil inventories. The consensus forecast for the official report from the EIA was a moderate build of 4 million barrels for the week ending February 27.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Wed Mar 04 15 01:38 ET
SPOT GOLD closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as tensions in the Ukraine have eased for the momentum. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a shortterm top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm top has been posted. If it extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the August December decline crossing is the next upside target.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Mon Mar 02 15 23:40 ET
SPOT GOLD closed lower on Tuesday. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If it resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the NovemberJanuaryrally crossing is the next downside target.
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Precious Metals: Alternative Currency Thesis Called Into Question Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Mon Mar 02 15 21:39 ET
Precious metals are trading lower as I go to press. Despite China becoming the latest central bank to cut interest rates again over the weekend, gold and silver have not found much demand as alternative currencies. In fact, the Aussie dollar has also fallen while the stock markets have failed to move noticeably higher on the back of the PBOC's move. This suggests that investors may have interpreted the PBOC's move as a signal that the health of the Chinese economy may be a lot worse than we are led to believe, even though the latest PMI numbers suggest otherwise. A weaker Chinese economy means industrial demand for precious metals, especially for silver, would be correspondingly weak. Meanwhile contrary to some expectations, the Indian government chose not to cut the import duty on precious metals when it presented its budget over the weekend. This means Indian demand for gold and silver in their physical form would remain somewhat weaker than would otherwise have been the case. The news must have disappointed some bullish speculators, some of whom may have now abounded their positions on gold and silver as a result. The buck-denominated precious metals have been weighed down further by a stronger dollar today, which has rallied despite the release of some weaker-than-expected US data.
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IMM Positioning: Short Covering Reduces Bullish USD Positions Further Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Danske Bank | Mon Mar 02 15 06:57 ET
IMM positioning data released on Friday revealed a second consecutive week of short EUR covering which sent non-commercial positioning in the single currency to the least bearish level since January. What is more, the demand for downside GBP and JPY exposure continued to deteriorate, with speculators slashing net shorts for the fifth and sixth consecutive weeks, respectively.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Sun Mar 01 15 23:51 ET
SPOT GOLD closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If it resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the NovemberJanuaryrally crossing is the next downside target.
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GOLD - Bullish, Extends Corrective Recovery Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Mar 01 15 23:21 ET
GOLD - With GOLD recovering strongly on Thursday, further strength is envisaged in the days ahead. On further upside, resistance resides at the 1,230.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,250.00 level, its key psycho level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1,280.00 level followed by the 1,300.00 level. A cut through this level will extend gains towards the 1,320.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,200 level where a break will aim at the 1,180.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside towards the 1,160.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,140.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside on corrective recovery.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Thu Feb 26 15 23:56 ET
SPOT GOLD posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a shortterm top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing would confirm that a shortterm top has been posted. If it extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the AugustDecember decline crossing is the next upside target.
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GOLD - Bullish, Extends Corrective Recovery Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Thu Feb 26 15 22:29 ET
GOLD - With GOLD recovering strongly on Thursday, further strength is envisaged in the days ahead. On further upside, resistance resides at the 1,230.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,250.00 level, its key psycho level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1,280.00 level followed by the 1,300.00 level. A cut through this level will extend gains towards the 1,320.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,200 level where a break will aim at the 1,180.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside towards the 1,160.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,140.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside on corrective recovery.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Thu Feb 26 15 02:37 ET
SPOT GOLD closed higher on Wednesday and the lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible nearterm. If it extends the decline off February's high, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm low has been posted.
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Crude Turns Higher As Stocks Of Oil Products Decrease Sharply Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Wed Feb 25 15 22:30 ET
WTI crude oil was trading lower prior to the official crude inventories data this afternoon, hovering around $49 a barrel. In contrast, Brent was trading in the black around $59. The gap between the two oil contracts had therefore widened to a good $10. The price divergence in these two oil contracts in part reflects the disappointment that the US oil output has continued to grow unabatedly despite the much weaker prices recently. On top of this, there seems to be some disquiet among the OPEC as so far Saudi’s idea of defending the cartel’s market share has not exactly worked compared to how they had probably envisaged. For example, Nigeria’s oil minister, Diezani Alison-Madueke, who is also the current president of the OPEC, has said that further price volatility would make it “highly likely that I will have to call an extraordinary meeting of OPEC in the next six weeks or so.” This has increased speculation that the cartel may after all cut back its production quota and thus concede some market share to shale producers. And although the recent sharp falls in rig counts point to some future production cuts in the US and elsewhere, nothing has been done about the supply glut in the short-term and this continues to exert strong downward pressure on WTI prices.
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Gold Lower Again After Yellen Testimony Sparked Short-Covering Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Tue Feb 24 15 21:26 ET
The price of gold fell today to a fresh 7-week low of just above $1190 before bouncing back strongly to trade for a time above $1200. Demand for the safe haven asset was initially already low as virtually everyone was expecting the Eurozone finance ministers to approve the Greek reform proposals for extending its bailout. Indeed, when this was approved the markets barely moved. Then it was over to Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, to cause some volatility as she testified on the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. Gold initially fell and the dollar rallied as traders focused on a line of her pre-written opening speech that suggested the interest rate hiking cycle could start at any future FOMC meeting. However they soon realised that, as always, the Fed’s decision will be data-dependant with Yellen suggesting that it is unlikely that the current economic conditions would warrant a rate hike in the 'next couple of meetings.' Meanwhile the Conference Board’s closely-watched consumer confidence index fell to 96.4 this month from 103.8 previously, missing expectations of 99.6.
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Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Tue Feb 24 15 04:35 ET
SPOT GOLD closed higher on Monday and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the AugustDecember decline crossing is the next upside target.
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IMM Positioning: Indicative Signs Of Speculators Turning GBP Bullish Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Danske Bank | Mon Feb 23 15 05:58 ET
IMM positioning data released Friday show that speculators reduced their bearish GBP bets for the fourth consecutive week, which sent non-commercial GBP positioning from the 17th to the 28th percentile in a historical perspective. We have for quite some time argued that the GBP potential is underestimated in financial markets and that the bearish positioning in itself suggests a high sensitivity to the upside when Bank of England is re-priced. Indeed, the implicit expectation for the first rate hike is currently set for March 2016, which we believe is far too dovish. Instead, we look for a hike in August this year, as 1) the unemployment rate is now close to the long-term average, 2) wage growth has started to rise, 3) the decline in inflation is temporary (i.e. base effects will remove the oil price collapse), 4) the housing market looks solid and 5) activity indicators point to continued growth of 2.5-3.0%. On a 3M horizon, however, the UK election is likely to cap the full GBP upside potential. We target EUR/GBP at 0.74 in 1M and 3M and 0.72 in 6M.
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GOLD - Weakens, Eyes The 1,216.00 Level Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Feb 22 15 22:34 ET
GOLD - With GOLD seen selling off on Tuesday, further downside pressure is now envisaged. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,216.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,200.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside towards the 1,180.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,160.00 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,240.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,320.00 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1,350.00 level followed by the 1,380.00 level. A cut through here will extend gains towards the 1,400.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside on price failure.
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WTI Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu Feb 19 15 22:16 ET
For the most part, global markets are consolidating within their recent ranges after yesterday’s less-hawkish-than-expected FOMC minutes. While these types of markets don’t necessarily offer heart-pounding trade opportunities in the short term, they do allow time to for traders to take a step back and prepare for the inevitable breakouts, whether its later this week or early next week.
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GOLD - Weakens, Eyes The 1,216.00 Level Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Tue Feb 17 15 22:59 ET
GOLD - With GOLD seen selling off on Tuesday, further downside pressure is now envisaged. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,216.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,200.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside towards the 1,180.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,160.00 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,240.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,320.00 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1,350.00 level followed by the 1,380.00 level. A cut through here will extend gains towards the 1,400.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside on price failure.
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WTI: Home On The Range Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Mon Feb 16 15 22:28 ET
For the second time in five days the Eurogroup meeting has yet again come away from the negotiating table making no new declarations on the Greek funding issue that threatens to upset the balance of the European Union. As my colleague Kathleen Brooks wrote earlier, 'this meeting could decide whether Greece defaults on its loans and, ultimately, if there is a Grexit.' So to say that there is a lot on the line would be a monumental understatement, but upon hearing that no deal has been struck, the EUR/USD only dropped about 80 pips, and is even trying to mount a comeback as I type these words. Perhaps Mr. Market has heard these types of ultimatums from the Eurogroup before and is unflinchingly familiar with the fact that they still have 12 days before Greece's funding officially runs out.
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Technical Analysis for Energy Markets Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ICN.com | Mon Feb 16 15 04:32 ET
Crude oil stabilized above 53.00 and Linear Regression Indicators are crossing over positively now, which support extending the upside move on intraday basis, as we still wait to touch our main target at 55.55. The negativity of RSI and MACD causes further sideways volatility waiting for a positive signal that will push the price to the upside again, as the expected upside move requires stabilizing above 51.95.
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