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Energy and Precious Metals Technical Analysis
CRUDE OIL - Extends Bullish Offensive On Rally Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Thu Dec 01 16 23:00 ET
CRUDE OIL - With the commodity rallying for two days in a row, more price extension is likely in the days ahead. On the downside, support resides at the 51.00 level where a break will expose the 50.00 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 49.00 level. Further down, support resides at the 48.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 52.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 53.00 level. A break above here will aim at the 54.00 level and then the 55.00 level followed by the 56.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside pressure. All in all, CRUDE OIL remains biased to the upside on bull pressure.
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Silver Lining For Precious Metals? Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu Dec 01 16 22:59 ET
I do apologise in advance for bombarding you with lots of commodity reports, but ahead of Friday's NFP report, the FX markets tend to create lots of false moves, so it is difficult to make much of today's moves. You could argue that it is the same for dollar-denominated commodities like gold and silver. Well that's partly what I am trying to get at. Both precious metals have broken below their respective 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels against their December 2015 lows, but these breaks could turn out to be false moves. There is a possibility that both gold and silver are about to turn higher, possibly once the US jobs report is out of the way tomorrow, or maybe even later on today. A small possibility, but a possibility nonetheless. Let me explain.
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Is Gold Hammering Out A Bottom? Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Wed Nov 30 16 22:21 ET
There is no doubt that the price of gold has been pressured tremendously in the past two months, and especially since early November when Donald Trump became the new US president-elect. Although many had projected that gold could see a significant boost in the event of his victory due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump, quite the opposite has happened. Gold has fallen precipitously on rising bond yields, a strengthening US dollar, and ever-increasing expectations of rising interest rates under the Federal Reserve. In addition, surprisingly buoyant equity markets that continue to hit new all-time highs have further decreased the safe-haven appeal of both gold and the Japanese yen.
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Is Gold Hammering Out A Bottom? Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Tue Nov 29 16 22:35 ET
There is no doubt that the price of gold has been pressured tremendously in the past two months, and especially since early November when Donald Trump became the new US president-elect. Although many had projected that gold could see a significant boost in the event of his victory due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump, quite the opposite has happened. Gold has fallen precipitously on rising bond yields, a strengthening US dollar, and ever-increasing expectations of rising interest rates under the Federal Reserve. In addition, surprisingly buoyant equity markets that continue to hit new all-time highs have further decreased the safe-haven appeal of both gold and the Japanese yen.
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GOLD - Follows Through Higher On Recovery Higher Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Mon Nov 28 16 22:13 ET
GOLD - The commodity strengthened on the back of its Friday rejection candle on Monday. This has left it targeting further upside pressure in the days ahead. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,180.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,170.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,160.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,150.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,200.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,210.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,220.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,230.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further on trend resumption.
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Gold, Long Term Target Since July (Below $1046) Remains But Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Foreign Exchange Analytics | Thu Nov 24 16 02:41 ET
In the Nov 17th email, once again said there was no confirmation of even a shorter term low 'pattern-wise'. The market has continued lower since and with the long term target since July of declines below that Dec 2015 low at $1046 still favored (see longer term below). Nearer term however, the market is oversold after the rapid reversal from the Nov 9th high at $1337, is seen in the final downleg in the decline from the Sept 7th high at $1353 (wave 5) and the US$ is seen nearing a top for at least a month (inverse relationship, see Tue email on the US$ index) with all suggesting a rising potential of a bottom for at least a month in gold (as with many markets that appear to be nearing reversals, see recent emails). At this point there is still no confirmation of such a low arguing further downside, but would expect the momentum to start slowing ahead and in turn would start to increase the likelihood of such a bottom. Nearby support is seen at $1280/83 (earlier low) and $1267/72 (50% retracement from the Dec 2015 low at $1046 and 'potential' area to form such a low). Nearby resistance is seen at the broken base of the bearish channel from July (currently at $1200/05). Bottom line : month long low seen nearing, but scope for further (likely limited) lows before the final bottom is in place.
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GOLD - Weakens On Sell-Off, Resumes Trend Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Wed Nov 23 16 22:08 ET
GOLD - Having the commodity sold off strongly on Wednesday, further weakness is likely. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,180.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,170.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,160.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,150.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,200.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,210.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,220.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,230.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further on trend resumption.
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GOLD - Looks To Decline Further On Bearishness Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Nov 20 16 21:58 ET
GOLD - Having the commodity closed lower the past week, further bearishness is envisaged. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,200.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,190.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,180.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,170.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,220.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,230.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,240.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,250.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further on correction
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GOLD - Puts In Temporary Bottom Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Tue Nov 15 16 22:22 ET
GOLD - Having halted its downside pressure to close higher on Tuesday, further recovery is expected. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,220.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,210.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,200.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,190.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,240.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,250.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,260.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,270.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further on correction
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Gold Plunge Pauses But Downside Risk Remains Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Tue Nov 15 16 22:03 ET
After nearly a week of sharp declines in the aftermath of last week's US presidential election, the price of gold paused for a breather on Tuesday. Fundamental pressures remain, however, in a market environment currently dominated by low market volatility and higher interest rate expectations. These prevailing conditions have been the primary forces driving gold prices lower, and are likely to continue impacting the precious metal at least on the immediate horizon.
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GOLD - Risk Remains Lower On Additional Bear Pressure Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Nov 13 16 21:37 ET
GOLD - Having retained its downside pressure, more weakness is likely. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,220.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,210.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,200.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,190.00 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,230.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,240.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,250.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,260.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further on correction.
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Gold Retreats Amid Stable Markets, Interest Rate Expectations Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Thu Nov 10 16 22:07 ET
In the aftermath of the US election surprise, gold prices have been in a significant retreat as the US dollar has surged, global equity markets have stabilized and strengthened, and interest rates are increasingly expected to rise. The US dollar was boosted shortly after Donald Trump’s presidential victory earlier this week due to expectations of fiscal stimulus and higher inflation under a Trump Administration. In turn, this has helped lead to greater expectations of rising interest rates. With the price of gold generally correlated inversely with both the US dollar and rising interest rates, the precious metal has dropped markedly after its initial Trump-fear-driven spike early Wednesday morning.
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GOLD - Risk Turns Lower On Bear Pressure Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Tue Nov 08 16 20:53 ET
GOLD - Having rejected higher prices on Monday, further weakness is likely. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,270.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,260.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,250.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,240.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,290.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,300.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,310.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,330.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to recover higher on correction.
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GOLD - Pushes Higher On Bull Pressure Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Nov 06 16 22:52 ET
GOLD - Having held on to its upside pressure, more recovery is envisaged. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,290.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,280.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,270.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,260.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,310.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,320.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,330.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,340.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to recover higher on correction.
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GOLD - Maintains Its Recovery Offensive Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Thu Nov 03 16 23:09 ET
GOLD - Having rejected lower prices to close on Thursday, risk is now building up on more strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,290.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,280.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,270.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,260.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,310.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,320.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,330.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,340.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to recover higher on further correction.
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Crude Oil Outlook Worsens As US Inventories Soar Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Wed Nov 02 16 22:46 ET
The bad news for crude oil began recently after doubts started emerging with regard to a proposed OPEC deal to cut oil production. Partly as a result of these doubts, crude oil prices for the past two weeks have virtually been in a state of free fall. Earlier this week, it was reported that OPEC’s oil output may have reached yet another record high in October, casting further doubts on the potential success of any deal to cut production.
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GOLD - Broader Bias Remains Lower Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Sun Oct 30 16 21:56 ET
GOLD - Having remained vulnerable to the downside, more weakness is likely in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,270.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,260.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,250.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,240.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,280.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,290.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,300.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,350.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to recover higher on correction.
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GOLD - Vulnerable To The Downside On Bear Pressure Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by FXTechStrategy | Wed Oct 26 16 22:30 ET
GOLD - Having rejected upside pressure to close lower on Wednesday, further weakness is envisaged. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,260.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,250.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,240.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,230.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,270.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,280.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,290.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,300.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to recover higher on correction.
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Crude Oil Remains Pressured Despite US Inventory Draw Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Wed Oct 26 16 22:26 ET
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark for US crude oil prices surged on Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US commercial crude inventories fell by 553,000 barrels last week. The markets had been expecting a substantial build in stockpiles, particularly after Tuesday's report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which had reported a much higher-than-expected build last week of 4.8 million barrels. The EIA's report of a surprise draw last week follows a much larger draw of 5.2 million barrels in the previous week. As a result of Wednesday's report, WTI initially surged, recovering the losses it had suffered immediately prior to the data release.
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Gold At A Critical Juncture Ahead Of Key Risk Events Print E-mail
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Forex.com | Tue Oct 25 16 22:58 ET
As the markets gear up for major risk events in the coming weeks, gold has been struggling to recover from its early October plunge. The price of gold is closely tied to several different factors beyond just fluctuations in demand for the physical asset. Most notably, these factors include the strength/weakness of the US dollar, central bank monetary policy and interest rates, as well as the level of risk appetite in the markets.
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