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Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Mon Feb 06 17 22:42 ET

GOLD

Spot gold rose to its highest since mid November, ending the day a few cents below a daily high of $,1232.95 a troy ounce. The commodity has benefited from an easing dollar ever since the year started, now accelerating its advance after the latest FOMC meeting's minutes suggest that a rate hike in the US won't come anytime soon. Weaker-than-expected wage growth in the US according to the NFP report released on Friday, support the safe-haven metal, further underpinned by increasing risk aversion. The metal has now trimmed half of its post-US elections losses, as the price stands around the 50% retracement of the November/December decline. In the daily chart, the 20 DMA accelerated higher and is currently aiming to cross above the 100 DMA, whilst technical indicators head north within positive territory, supporting some further gains for this Tuesday. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators also present a strong upward momentum, with the RSI entering overbought territory, and the price well above bullish moving averages, in line with the longer term view.

Support levels: 1,230.00 1,221.65 1,215.00

Resistance levels: 1,237.30 1,245.20 1,255.05

WTI CRUDE

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell sharply this Monday, down to 52.90 to settle at $53.06 a barrel by the end of the US session. Speculation about an increase in US oil output continues to curb optimism over OPEC output cut, after last week´s Baker Hughes and EIA reports, showing a large increase in stockpiles and in the number of oil drilling rigs. Technically, WTI remains in a consolidative phase, having retreated from the upper end of its range tested late last week. In the daily chart, technical readings maintain a neutral stance, as the price is currently struggling with a horizontal 20 SMA, whist technical indicators have turned lower around their mid-lines, with limited bearish strength. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the price is currently pressuring its 100 and 200 SMAs, both around 53.10, without confirming a break lower, whilst the RSI indicator maintains its bearish slope around 40, supporting additional declines towards the 52.00 region.

Support levels: 52.65 52.00 51.60

Resistance levels: 53.55 54.30 55.10

DJIA

US indexes closed with modest losses this Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 19 points or 0.09%, to settle at 20,052.42. The Nasdaq Composite closed the day at 5,663.55, down by 3 points, while the S&P lost 0.21%, to 2,292.56. Energy-related equities dragged Wall Street's lower, although strong earnings reports limited declines. Hasbro Inc. shares rose to their highest on record, after reporting an 11% increase in revenues during the last quarter of 2016. Within the Dow, Boeing was the best performer, up by 1.00%, whist Verizon Communications topped losers' list, down by 1.21%. The daily chart shows that the index remains well above a flat 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators have lost upward momentum and turned modestly lower within positive territory, not enough to confirm further slides. In the 4 hours chart, the index maintains a positive technical stance, given that technical indicators have resumed their advances after a modest downward correction from near overbought readings, whilst it remains well above a bullish 20 SMA.

Support levels: 20,010 19,945 19,896

Resistance levels: 20,090 20,141 20,200

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 closed the day at 7,172.15, down 16 points or 0.22%, weighed by the negative mood among local traders, although a sharp advance in Randgold Resources, after the company reported a 76% advance in its Q4 net profit, kept losses subdued. The company was the best performer, closing the day 4.15% higher, followed by Mediclinic International, up by 1.97%. The worst performer was Tesco, down 2.15%. The daily chart shows that an early advance was contained by the 20 DMA, while technical indicators diverge from each other within neutral territory, lacking clear directional clues. In the 4 hours chart, the index remains between its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the largest acting as immediate resistance at 7,205. In this last time frame, technical indicators have bounced from near their mid-lines and maintain upward slopes, indicating a limited bearish potential in the short term, and favoring a modest recovery, to be confirmed with a break above the mentioned resistance.

Support levels: 7,163 7,128 7,091

Resistance levels: 7,205 7,258 7,312

DAX

The German DAX fell to its lowest since mid January, down 1.22% or 139 points to settle at 11,509.84, as the positive sentiment seen during the Asian session reverted, resulting in a strong slide in banking-related equities. Automakers also fell sharply, amid a decline in oil prices. Within the DAX, all components closed in the red, with Commerzbank being the worst performer, down 2.61%, followed by Adidas that closed 2.39% lower and Volkswagen that shed 2.38%. Ahead of the Asian opening the index stands around the mentioned close, having finally extended below a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator maintains a neutral stance, hovering around the 100 level, and the RSI indicator accelerates its decline, now heading south around 45, this last favoring a steeper decline, particularly on a break below 11,425, January 17th low. In the 4 hours chart, the upside was contained by a bearish 20 SMA that now converges with the 100 SMA at 11,628, whilst technical indicators maintain strong bearish slopes within negative territory, also indicating further slides ahead.

Support levels: 11,479 11,425 11,366

Resistance levels: 11,570 11,628 11,680

HY Markets
http://www.hymarkets.com

 

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