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Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Thu Apr 13 17 00:23 ET


Spot Gold surged in late US session extending strong rally for the second day after US dollar slumped on comments from US President Donald Trump, who said that the US currency is getting too strong while geopolitical concerns continue to weigh on sentiment.

The yellow metal hit fresh five-month high at $1283, approaching its next target at $1286 (Fibonacci 76.4$ of $1337/$1122 descend. Gold is driven by rising geopolitical concerns that prompted investors to move from riskier assets into safe-haven gold.After Strong rally on Tuesday left long bullish daily candle that underpinned bullish action, gold price continued to rise and accelerated on the latest comments from President Trump. Strong bullish sentiment was boosted by fresh dollar’s weakness and could drive gold price through $1286 barrier towards targets at $1292 and psychological $1300 barrier in extension.

Firmly bullish technical studies remain supportive, however, overbought conditions on daily chart may pause rallies for consolidation.

Former tops at $1270/60 are expected to keep the downside protected.

Support: 1272, 1270, 1263, 1257
Resistance, 1283, 1286, 1292, 1300


WTI oil ended trading in red on Wednesday for the first time after four straight days of gains that hit fresh five-week high at $53.74 per barrel. The oil price eased below $53.00 in late US session, extending pullback despite unexpected fall in US crude inventories. Energy Information Administration released its weekly report, showing fall of crude stocks by 2.2 million barrels in the week ended on Apr 7, compared to forecast for 87.000 barrels build.

Crude oil remains supported by rising tensions in Middle East and North Korea, also being supported by oil producers’ decision to extend output reduction for another six months and eyes key short-term barriers at $55.00 zone. Current easing is likely driven by technicals, as studies are overbought, as well as on profit-taking after four-day rally, near the end of holiday-shortened week.

Tuesday’s low, left after strong downside rejection at $52.68, marks initial support that stays intact for now, guarding hourly Ichimoku cloud base at $52.41 and broken Fibo 61.8% barrier at 51.97 which also act as significant supports.

Extended dips should find solid supports at $51.65/61 (converged 55/100 SMA), which are expected to contain and keep overall bullish structure intact.

Support: 52.79, 52.68, 51.97, 51.65
Resistance: 53.26, 53.74, 54.50, 55.00


U.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday as investors moved in safe-haven assets amid lingering geopolitical worries, but keeping the upcoming earnings season in sight. Investors remain concerned about the situation over Syria after US military attacked Syrian army base, with growing threats of escalation of conflict and further confrontation with Russia. Traders worry that these developments could distract president Trump from following his campaign promises in pro-business policies, such as tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending that drove Wall Street to its record highs since Trump’s election.

Dow Jones ended Wednesday’s trading in red and moved deeper into daily Ichimoku cloud, generating bearish signals after triple-Doji that signalled strong indecision during past few sessions.

Daily Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen lines are in bearish setup and daily indicators entering negative territory, generating negative signal for attack at initial target at 20450 zone and extension towards key support at 20385 (daily Ichimoku cloud base, break of which could trigger further retracement of Jan/Mar 19713/21160 ascend.

Support: 20490,20450, 20385, 20266
Resistance: 20607, 20637, 20682, 20692

FTSE 100

FTSE index ended in red on Wednesday, after repeated rejection at key 7343 resistance (Fibonacci 61.8% of pullback from record high at 7444 to 7179 (Mar 27 low). Subsequent easing returned below broken Kijun-sen line (7311) and softened near-term structure, as hourly indicators moved into negative territory. Weakness from 7343 managed to find footstep at daily 20SMA 7285 that guards lower trigger at 7268 (daily Tenkan-sen), break below which would further weaken near-term picture and risk return to key near-term support at 7240 (top of rising daily Ichimoku cloud.

Daily technical indicators are holding in neutral zone and lacking clearer signals for now, however, bullish bias would remain in play while the price holds above rising daily cloud.

UK stocks ended lower on Wednesday after gains from financial and industrial sector were offset by losses in Tesco shares that dropped 4.6% on Wednesday, making blue-chip FTSE 100 index to close the day 0.45% down.

Support: 7268, 7240, 7222, 7195
Resistance: 7311, 7343, 7381, 7400


DAX ticked slightly above Tuesday’s high today, but remained in red at the end of the day and stayed directionless for the second consecutive day. The price held between daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen line (12240/12141 respectively, after repeated attack at key support at 12141, also Apr 06 low. Mixed signals from daily technical studies are lacking clearer direction signals, after Tuesday’s long-legged daily Doji candle.The top performers of DAX index on Wednesday were Henkel (up 1.32%), Adidas (up 0.94%) and BMW which ended session up 0.90%.

On the other side, the worst performers were Thyssenkrupp (down 1.89%), Deutsche Boerse (down 1.08%) and Heidelbergcement (down 1.03%).

Rising stocks were 412 while 306 declined and 25 remained unchanged, with overall result keeping the index without stronger moves on Wednesday.

Rising daily 20SMA contained today’s dips and continues to underpin, with key support at 12144, clear break of which would generate stronger bearish signal.

The upper pivot is at 12240 (Tenkan-sen) with lift above 12300 zone (Apr 10 high) needed to trigger stronger recovery.

Support: 12141, 12069, 12000, 11943
Resistance: 12199, 12240, 12267, 12296

HY Markets


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