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Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Wed Apr 19 17 03:29 ET


Spot Gold remained steady on Tuesday and bounced back to $1292 after posting marginally lower correction low at $1279. The yellow metal remains supported by geopolitical tensions that boost its safe haven appeal and also by weaker dollar. Extended consolidation is expected to precede fresh attack at psychological $1300 barrier and extension towards next target at $1307 on break.

Technical studies remain firmly bullish but overextended that requires caution. However, strong global risk-off mode for now offsets threats of stronger correction on overbought daily RSI / slow stochastic.

Bearish scenario would require firm break below $1277 pivot to signal stronger correction.

Support: 1281. 1279. 1277. 1271
Resistance: 1292. 1295. 1300. 1307


WTI oil remains at the back foot for the fourth consecutive day and extended pullback from fresh five-week high at $53.74 to $52.09, slightly below Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of $47.07/$53.74 rally.

Daily slow stochastic is heading south and showing more room at the downside, after signalling correction on forming bearish divergence. Correction should be ideally contained at $51.66 (daily 55/100SMA bull-cross) to keep intact overall bullish sentiment which was dented by surge in US shale oil output that offsets attempts of oil producers to curb global oversupply by cutting output and boost oil prices.

Conversely, extension below $51.66 would risk test of next pivot at $51.19 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) loss of which would signal deeper correction.

Support: 52.09. 51.76. 51.19. 50.41
Resistance: 52.83. 53.18. 53.37. 53.74


Dow was dragged lower on Tuesday as call for general election in UK added to the list of uncertainties for investors which were heated by growing tensions from North Korea, through Middle East to France.

Dow was down 0.6% on Tuesday, on bearish acceleration after Monday's recovery was capped by 20/55AMA bear-cross. This has added on already weak technical outlook and increased risk of renewed probe below key daily Ichimoku cloud base support at 20385, which so far managed to contain two attacks. Firm break below cloud base would be seen as strong signal for fresh extension of pullback from all-time high at 21160 (posted on Mar 1) for test of 20266 (Fibonacci 61.8% of 19713/21160 ascend).

Daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen lines in firm bearish a=setup are supportive for further weakness.

Support: 20385. 20266. 20126. 20068
Resistance: 20481. 20580. 20600. 20692


FTSE100 index was among the top losers on Tuesday, as the index was pushed strongly down on UK election decision and sharply higher pound, on the first working day after extended Easter holiday break. FTSE lost nearly 3% on Tuesday's strong bearish acceleration from day's high at 7285 to the lowest of the day at 7056.

Sharp fall that surged through strong support, shaped in rising daily Ichimoku cloud (7253/7184) has weakened daily technical studies which gained strong bearish momentum for further downside, as the price is eyeing key med-term support at 7024 (Feb 2 trough) for full retracement of 7024/7444 rally.

Also completion of asymmetric Head & Shoulders pattern on daily chart adds on strong bearish pressure.

Support: 7056. 7024. 7000. 6954
Resistance: 7100.7125. 7192. 7235


DAX was firmly in red on Tuesday, following general negative trend for stocks and losing 1.4% for the day. Extension of pullback from record high at 12410 (posted on Apr 03) extended below psychological 12000 support and retracing over 76.4% of 11878/12410 upleg.

Tuesday's long red daily candle weighs on market as daily technical studies are losing traction. Near-term risk is turned lower, as index is eyeing key short-term support at 11878 (Mar 22 low) for full retracement of 11878/12410 bull-leg, loss of which would trigger further easing. Tuesday's fall found temporary footstep at daily 55SMA, with limited upside attempts expected ahead of final push towards 11878 target.

Support: 12000. 11960. 11878. 11718
Resistance: 12081. 12162. 12220. 12267

HY Markets


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