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Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by HY Markets | Wed Apr 19 17 23:00 ET


Spot Gold ended in red on Wednesday and extended pullback from fresh high at $1295 to briefly probe below $1275 (Fibonacci 38.2% of $1243/$1295 upleg). Quick bounce above $1275 pivot signalled that downside remains limited for now, as technical correction on overbought daily studies faces strong headwinds on Gold’s safe haven buying on rising tensions around Korean peninsula.

However, technical studies show more room for extension of pullback from $1295. Rising daily Tenkan-sen line (currently at $1271) acts as good support, where extended easing should be ideally contained, before bulls regain control.

Near-term focus remains at $1295/$1300 targets, with break of the latter (which is seen very likely on rising uncertainty in the markets), expected to expose next barriers at $1307/15 (Nov 2 high / Sep 1 low).

Support: 1275, 1271, 1269, 1263
Resistance: 1283, 1290, 1292, 1295


WTI oil accelerated strongly lower on Wednesday, extending pullback from $53.74 peak to hit lows ticks ahead of psychological $50.00 support. Strong bearish acceleration broke below important supports at $51.75/62 (100/55SMA’s), $51.19 (Fibonacci 38.2% of $47.07/$53.74) and 20SMA at $50.73. Oil prices dropped nearly 4% on Wednesday, on the biggest one-day loss since early March, after bearish U.S. inventories data, raised concerns that the increasing levels of U.S. shale oil production could weigh on OPEC’s efforts to reduce output and support oil prices.

EIA report showed that crude oil inventories fell by 1 million barrels compared to forecast for nearly 1.5 million barrels draw in the week ending Apr 12.

The report had negative impact on oil price that dropped into dangerous territory near $50.00 pivot, loss of which would drag the price down to 200SMA at $48.92.

Wednesday’s long bearish candle is expected to weigh on near-term action.

Recent bearish acceleration may take a breather on oversold daily slow stochastic, however, firmer bullish signal is awaited.

Support: 50.41, 50.00, 49.62, 48.92
Resistance: 51.19, 51.58, 51.75, 52.24


Dow Jones remained under pressure on Wednesday and extended below daily Ichimoku cloud base which offered solid support during past few sessions. Daily close below the cloud will be seen as bearish signal for extension towards next significant supports at 20266 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 19713/21160 upleg) and 20197 (rising 100SMA).
Daily technicals are establishing in firm bearish mode and maintain downside pressure, as overall sentiment for stocks is negative.

Broken cloud base now acts as solid resistance, which should ideally limit the upside and guard next pivotal barrier at 0500 (falling daily Tenkan-sen line).

Support: 20310, 20266, 20197, 20054
Resistance: 20385, 20437, 20500, 20580


FTSE index stayed under pressure and extended losses on Wednesday, to hit new low at 7032, on the way towards target at 7024 (Feb 2 low). Full retracement of 7024/7444 rally will be seen as strong bearish signal for extension of larger bear-phase from fresh all-time high at 7444 (posted on Mar16) towards psychological 7000 support and 6969 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 6675/7444 rally.

Broken daily Ichimoku cloud which will start turning lower next week, now marks strong barrier. Cloud base at 7192, reinforced by falling daily Tenkan-sen line is expected to cap stronger upside attempts.

Support: 7032, 7024, 7000, 6969
Resistance: 7091, 7144, 7192, 7235


DAX remained in red on Wednesday, as price action entered consolidation phase above Tuesday’s fresh low at 11979, after bears cracked psychological 12000 support. Larger bear-phase off 12410 (Apr 03 peak) which currently rides on the third wave is signalling extension towards key support at 11878 (Mar 22 trough / top of rising daily Ichimoku cloud), for full retracement of 11878/12410 rally.

Strong bearish sentiment that dominates in the stock markets and bearish momentum building on daily studies are supportive for final attack at 11878 target.

Broken 20SMA at 12158 marks strong resistance which is expected to limit extended corrective upticks.

Support: 11979, 11943, 11878, 11718
Resistance: 12062, 12144, 12158, 1245

HY Markets


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