CRUDE OIL(futures) - With a second consecutive week of downside losses seeing Crude Oil testing a low of 74.03 the past week, further weakness looks to shape up towards its long term rising trendline drawn from the 35.66 level and currently seen at 72.74. The commodity has not looked back since failing at 83.93 level, its 2010 high and subsequently collapsing through its key support levels to close the week lower on Friday. With that said, we expect Crude Oil to see a temporary respite at the 72.66/71 levels and trigger corrective recoveries if tested. This zone sees a convergence of its major emas both on the daily(200) and the weekly(50 & 200) plus its long term rising trendline. However, if that collapses, further weakness should develop towards the 68.69 level, its Dec 14'09 low and then its Sept 25'09 low at 65.03. Its daily and weekly studies are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the other hand, the commodity will have to break and close above its Jan 19'10 high to halt its current downside vulnerability and bring further strength towards the 83.93 level with a breach of there setting the stage for a run at its weekly 200 ema at 84.63 ahead of its .50 fibonacci retracement(147.24-35.50 declines) at 90.19 and then its big psycho level at the 100.00 level, On the whole, with a reversal of its recent break out seen, risk of further downside remains on the cards.

Market Analyst
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