Oil N' Gold - Resources for Serious Traders
Indepth Energy and Precious Metals Research Reports
WTI: No Longer A Benchmark For Oil Prices Print E-mail
Analysis | Research | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Mon Feb 13 12 11:31 ET
The continuous divergence between the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent prices has called into question whether markets should continue to consider the price of WTI a benchmark at all. The biggest problem for WTI is that the physical characteristics of the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for WTI has been broken and has rendered the price of WTI obsolete as a benchmark for oil and gasoline prices in the U.S. However, markets have remained efficient in the sense that they have easily shifted their attention to alternative benchmarks, as is the case with the price of Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) crude. In the past, the price of LLS remained very close to the price of WTI. However, since the divergence between WTI and Brent started, the price of LLS has followed the later rather than the former. Thus, markets have already chosen to de-emphasize WTI as a benchmark price for oil. In addition, the price of U.S. gasoline has followed the price of LLS and Brent rather than the price of WTI.
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Junior Gold Stocks Rebound from Lows Print E-mail
Analysis | Research | Written by Trendsman Research | Tue Jan 31 12 03:08 ET
The junior sector had a very difficult year in 2011 but has led the recent recovery (at least statistically) in the precious metals sector. Two of our favorite exchange traded funds, GDXJ and ZJG.to are up 30% and 25% respectively. That exceeds GDX (large caps) which has rebounded 15%. These are significant gains but barely put a dent in the low valuations for the sector. Ratio analysis shows us how undervalued the smaller gold stocks are yet an examination of history shows this is not out of the ordinary at this point in a bull market.
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The Gold Stocks are Tracking Past Equity Bull Markets Print E-mail
Analysis | Research | Written by Trendsman Research | Tue Jan 10 12 10:27 ET
All bull markets have similarities and all equity bull markets have strong similarities. They go through similar phases. Most bull markets start off slow and then build towards what we like to say is an acceleration into a bubble and potential mania. In last weeks editorial we noted how bull markets, prior to the bubble phase, tend to make major bottoms every three or so years. Yet, in looking at the present bull market in gold stocks and comparing it to the previous three equity bull markets (Technology, Japan and Gold Stocks) we find stronger and deeper similarities which confirms to us that the gold stocks are in the bull market of our time.
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Commodity Price Volatility to Continue Print E-mail
Analysis | Research | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Mon Jan 02 12 09:55 ET
If 2011 was a wild year for energy and commodity prices, our expectation is that 2012 will be no different, as the news coming from Europe and other parts of the world should remain unsettling. One of the few exceptions to this environment will likely be that U.S. economic conditions will continue to improve and this should temper some of the volatility brought on by other economies around the world.
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Relative Strength Analysis is Important for Gold Stocks Print E-mail
Analysis | Research | Written by Trendsman Research | Wed Oct 26 11 11:23 ET
Relative strength is defined as the measuring of one market against another over a specific period of time. Relative strength is an important concept in any bull market. After all, if you've found the bull market why not find the leaders? We consider relative strength particularly important when analyzing gold and silver stocks. There are hundreds of gold and silver stocks and despite the larger trend, they won't always trend in the same direction. As a result, you need to be a stock picker in this sector if you want to earn the best returns.
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The Eurozone Wags the Gold & Silver Dog Print E-mail
Analysis | Research | Written by Trendsman Research | Mon Oct 24 11 02:20 ET
If Greece defaults and the European situation begins to spin out of control where will money flow? It would not make sense for market participants to buy Euro's during a default regardless of whether the default it structured or not. In fact, it is more likely that European central banks and businesses would be looking to either hedge their Euro exposure or convert their cash positions to another currency all together.
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Interim Peak in Bonds Coincides with Rebound in Mining Stocks Print E-mail
Analysis | Research | Written by Trendsman Research | Wed Oct 12 11 00:42 ET
We've written about the importance of intermarket analysis. Movements in various sectors and asset classes influence each other. The Treasury market is the largest in the world and affects trends in other markets. Interestingly, Bonds at times move with Gold. In these cases it is due to a safety or flight to quality play and as a result mining equities tend to underperform. Earlier this year, the safety plays were the Swiss Franc, Gold and Bonds. The first two were first to reverse and now Bonds are putting in an important top. The beneficiary of this market shit will be mining equities and equities in general.
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Gold and Silver Stocks Maintain Long-Term Support Print E-mail
Analysis | Research | Written by Trendsman Research | Tue Sep 27 11 00:07 ET
Now that we are past the Fed circus we can get back to reality. But what is reality? Is it inflation? Deflation? A repeat of 2008? What matters is the message of the markets and the correct interpretation of the message. With regards to the mining stocks we are seeing a stark contrast relative to the rest of the stock market.
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Amid Market Turmoil, Gold Stocks Find Heavy Accumulation Print E-mail
Analysis | Research | Written by Trendsman Research | Wed Sep 14 11 06:31 ET
The collapse of 2008 remains fresh in mind. And yes, while collapse is the most overused word in the financial markets (next to bubble), 2008 was indeed a collapse for everything. Our beloved gold stock sector plunged roughly 70% in only three months. This collapse hangs in the back of the psyche each time global trouble intensifies and the gold stocks selloff. In the last week or so I've received many emails from subscribers who are worried about a Euro crash and a potential repeat of 2008. Let me explain why there is absolutely no need to worry if you own the gold stocks.
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Silver and Silver Stocks Forming Bullish Cup and Handle Pattern Print E-mail
Analysis | Research | Written by Trendsman Research | Tue Sep 06 11 03:53 ET
A cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern that represents a period of consolidation followed by an eventual breakout, which is the continuation of the previous trend. Typically these patterns last months and not weeks or days. Cup and handle patterns also entail precise price targets. To find the price target, one measures the distance from the top to the bottom of the cup and then adds the distance to the top of the cup. In some cases analysts can use a logarithmic scale though its best to use a arithmetic scale.
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