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Indepth Energy and Precious Metals Research Reports
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Analysis | Research |
Written by TD Bank |
Wed Sep 10 08 15:51 ET
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With crude oil prices stealing the headlines, relatively little attention has been paid to the significant developments in the natural gas market. After surging from US$7 per MMBtu in January to over US$13 per MMBtu in early July - an 88% increase - natural gas prices on the NYMEX have since reversed course, falling below US$7.25 per MMBtu in just 9 weeks. Still, prices remain 30% above year-ago levels. July's peak was the highest price - and the subsequent drop the most rapid - since the Hurricane Katrina days in 2005. This wild ride that natural gas prices have been on has raised the question as to where prices are headed in the near term, especially during the all important 2008/09 winter heating season.
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Analysis | Research |
Written by Danske Bank |
Mon Sep 08 08 15:02 ET
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Weak economies can bring down presidents, and can certainly bring down commodity prices. The commodity market has, broadly speaking, experienced a six-year-long boom driven by supply disruptions and galloping demand. Hence, the past couple of months have been a rude awakening for the market. Oil prices have collapsed by close to USD 40 from the peak and major base metals like copper and aluminium have seen their 2008 gains more or less erased in two months.
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Analysis | Research |
Written by BHF-BANK |
Mon Aug 25 08 14:03 ET
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Prices on energy markets have either moved sideways or upwards again in August; this trend will probably continue for a while. In the medium term, however, energy prices are likely to fall, as they are bound to be affected by the economic slowdown in the large industrialized countries. We also think it likely that the US dollar will move sideways in the coming weeks. But based on interest rate expectations, the dollar will probably appreciate further in the medium term: whereas central banks in Europe are heading towards interest rate cuts, the next interest rate movement in the US will be up. A stronger dollar suggests that oil prices could be lower.
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Analysis | Research |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Mon Aug 18 08 17:11 ET
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Oil prices have fallen back quite sharply from a peak of close to $150 a barrel just a month ago to around $112 presently. But in real terms (adjusted for price inflation) oil prices have risen in the last five years to exceed the peak levels of the oil-induced economic crisis of the late 1970s, see chart a. Oil prices and oil price shifts have the ability to have a big impact on economic growth and inflation, through the effect on incomes and from the monetary policy response.
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Analysis | Research |
Written by Danske Bank |
Tue Aug 05 08 13:32 ET
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The commodity market experienced one of its biggest corrections since 1980 in July. Once again the commodity complex is taking its cue from the oil market, where a shift in sentiment seems to have occurred. The obvious question now is if this is the beginning of the end of the commodity bull run, or just a normal correction exaggerated by fund and speculative money exiting commodities?
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Analysis | Research |
Written by TD Bank |
Wed Jul 30 08 16:41 ET
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But wait a minute. A closer look at recent commodity trends says it is too early to throw away your Economics 101 text book. In fact, buried under the headline commodity price index reading, a response to good old supply-demand fundamentals was indeed alive and well in most markets in the second quarter. After soaring by 30% in the first three months of the year, agricultural product prices declined by 10% in the April-June period, as investors bet on a major increase in crop yields as producers scurried to increase seeded acreage following last year’s price surge.
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Analysis | Research |
Written by BHF-BANK |
Thu Jul 24 08 15:16 ET
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In July the energy complex dropped across the board, but levels remain elevated. Volatility was extreme at times. Electricity prices for the calendar years on the EEX saw swings of up to €5; and on one day the oil price fell by as much as $10 in intraday trading.
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Analysis | Research |
Written by Jyske Bank |
Fri Jul 18 08 05:43 ET
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In Asia as well as the Middle East, the record-high oil prices have now prompted reaction. In the past month, Saudi Arabia announced that its July production will be lifted to up to 9.7 million b/d - the highest level in more than thirty years. In China and India, among others, the frozen pump prices of gasoline and diesel have been thawed. Particularly the Chinese initiative, which lifts pump prices by almost 20%, caused a stir. The world's second-largest oil consumer had been expected to postpone that sort of controversial initiative until after the closing ceremony of the Olympics.
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Analysis | Research |
Written by Danske Bank |
Tue Jul 08 08 16:47 ET
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The question of whether food and energy prices have been pushed higher by fundamentals or by speculation has fuelled an intense debate lately. Currently, no less than nine bills are on their way through the US Congress aimed at cracking down on speculation. Three proposals from independent Connecticut Senator Joe Liebermann, who sees "excessive market speculation", have attracted the most attention. The most drastic would prohibit pension funds from investing in energy and food commodities. However, he also proposes stricter rules on the total share of commodity markets held by financial investors, and new rules on speculative OTC derivatives trading and hedging by investment banks in the futures market.
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Analysis | Research |
Written by Globicus International |
Tue Jul 08 08 15:18 ET
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There is a strong correlation between the US real federal funds rate and the growth rate of the CRB price index. The reason is that monetary policy determines inflation, particularly in the commodity market where prices are set on a daily basis and not sticky due to long period contracts. In open economies like today's integrated world economy, US monetary policy is affecting liquidity not only in the US but also liquidity in the rest of world. Excess liquidity is the main determinant of rising commodity prices; demands from booming economies like China, India and others also help explain higher prices but to a lesser extent.
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