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Oil N' Gold Focus Reports
Fed Speeches Unveiled How Divided the Members are Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Sep 26 16 00:30 ET
We learnt last week that a more divided Fed committee decided to leave the policy rate unchanged. The focus now turns to the chance of a rate hike in November and December, as the central bank left the door open for one rate hike this year. Two speakers demonstrated how different the hawks and doves are last Friday.
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Weekly Fundamentals - Hopes of Crude Oil Output Freeze Dissipate Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Sep 24 16 11:59 ET
Energy prices slumped last Friday as Saudi Arabia "predicted" that there would not be any decision at the unofficial meeting in Algiers next week. Adding to the bearish sentiment was the Fed's plan to restrict financial institutions' involvement in physical commodities. Both crude oil benchmarks fell more than -3.5% at close Friday, trimming the weekly gains of WTI and Brent contracts to +3.37% and +0.26% respectively. Following 2 consecutive weeks' of rally in gasoline prices, the RBOB contract retreated -5.8% last week.
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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Technical | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Sep 24 16 11:35 ET
Crude oil's corrective fall from 48.75 last week continued and stay bounded in near term falling channel. Deeper decline would be expected in near term. Overall, price actions from 51.67 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. We'd be cautious on strong support from 39.19 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, above 47.75 resistance will target a test on 51.67 high.
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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Technical | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Sep 24 16 11:34 ET
Natural gas's break of 2.998 resistance indicates resumption of whole rise from 1.611. Further rally is expected this week. However, as rise from 1.2523 could be the fifth wave from 1.611, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% projection of 1.909 to 2.998 from 2.523 at 3.196 to limit upside to bring a lengthier correction. Meanwhile, break of 2.834 support will argue that it has topped earlier than we thought and turn focus back to 2.523 support.
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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Technical | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Sep 24 16 11:34 ET
Gold's sideway consolidation from 1377.5 is still in progress and outlook remains unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week first and the larger rise from 1045.4 might extend. In that case, we'll be cautious on topping around long term fibonacci level at 1380.98. Decisive break of 1306.0 will be the first sign of trend reversal and will turn focus back to 1199.0 support
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Silver Weekly Technical Outlook Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Technical | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Sep 24 16 11:33 ET
Silver's consolidation from 21.22 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Downside attempts should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 13.62 to 21.22 at 18.32. However, firm break of 18.32 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 16.525.
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Risk Rally Continued in the Aftermath of FOMC Meeting Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Sep 23 16 00:16 ET
Financial markets continued to react positively to Fed's monetary stance in September. Catching up with Wall Street's risk rally just after the FOMC announcement, the pan-European STOXX 600 gained +1.6%. Germany's DAX soared +2.3% while the UK's FTSE added +1.1%. Wall Street climbed further higher with DJIA and S&P 500 indices adding +0.5% and +0.7% respectively. Much of the gain was driven by the energy sector. Energy prices soared as the meeting between Saudi Arabia and Iran ignited hopes of output freeze.
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Sentiment Buoyed as Fed Left Policy Rate Unchanged Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Sep 22 16 01:13 ET
Investors rejoiced as Fed expectedly left the policy rate unchanged. Equities rose across the board. Wall Street gained with DJIA and S&P 500 indices adding +0.9% and +1.09% respectively. European shares also climbed with the Stoxx600 index up +0.43%. Shares in Asia Pacific carried forward the upbeat sentiment Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 index has soared +1.91%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has gained +1.14%, at the time writing. US dollar dropped as the Fed failed to raise interest rate.
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BOJ Expected to Cut Rates Deeper to Negative Territory Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Sep 20 16 23:48 ET
***[UPDATE]BOJ introduces a new policy framework, the "QQE with Yield Curve Control", in order to achieve the inflation target of +2%. The framework consists of two major components: "yield curve control" and "inflation-overshooting commitment". For the first component, BOJ would control short-term and long-term interest rates, while, for the second one, BOJ commits to expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI exceeds +2%, and stays above it in a stable manner. BOJ refrained from cutting the policy rate further from the current -0.1% and left the annual pace of increase in the amount outstanding of its JGB holdings at about 80 trillion yen. The policy change indicates that BOJ has shifted from “monetary base" targeting to “nominal yield curve" targeting.
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Holding Breath for Fed Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Sep 20 16 00:10 ET
Wall Street trading was range-bound as investors await the FOMC meeting which starts today. Carrying forward the upbeat sentiment in Asia and Europe, S&P500 had risen as much as +0.7% early in the session. The gains were then pared later in the day, leaving the index flat at close. DJIA ended the day -0.02% lower. The Treasury market was also rather quiet with yields edging 1-bp higher. US dollar erased some of the gains made last Friday. On energy prices, crude oil prices recovered with the front-month WTI crude contract adding +0.63% and the Brent crude contract up +0.39%.
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