Oil N' Gold - Resources for Serious Traders
Oil N' Gold Focus Reports
Hopes of Early Tapering Fade as Draghi Sees Little Need to Adjust Guidance Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Apr 06 17 23:50 ET
Dovish ECB triggered renewed selling in the single currency. EURUSD fell to a fresh 3-month low of 1.0627 before settling at 1.0642, down -0.19%, while EURCHF resumed the decline after rebounding over the past few days. As ECB President Mario Draghi noted in his speech, it is "clearly too soon to declare success on inflation" and he saw "no need to deviate from wording of forward guidance".
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Sentiment Damped after FOMC Hinted to Begin Phasing Out Reinvestment Policy Later this Year Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Apr 05 17 23:46 ET
The FOMC minutes for the March meeting sent yields and equities lower. US dollar index ended the day largely unchanged as bearishness of the FOMC minutes was partly offset by optimism from the ADP report. The minutes suggested that the Fed might begin shrinking its balance sheet in as soon as "later this year". The market probably interpreted the phasing out of the reinvestment policy as a de facto tightening measure which would reduce the urgency to hike interest rates.
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Crude Oil Prices Rose to 4-Week Highs as US Inventory Declined Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Apr 05 17 01:00 ET
Wall Street was mixed, ahead of the US-China meeting and the release of the March employment report, with energy, utilities and materials shares leading the gains while financials and consumer discretionary shares losing. The DJIA and S&P 500 indices gained +0.19% and +0.06%, respectively, for the day. European shares climbed higher with the basic resources index rising +1.5% and the oil sector adding+ 1%.
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Terrorist Threat Weighed on Sentiment Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Apr 04 17 00:43 ET
A terrorist attack as St Petersburg, Russia weighed on sentiment, driving investors to safe-haven assets. Equities weakened in both Europe and the US. European shares dropped from the highest levels in 16 months, led by financial and energy sectors. Wall Street slipped with DJIA and S&P 500 indices losing -0.05% and -0.16% respectively.
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Japan Business Sentiment Improved in First Quarter, but Outlook Not as Bright Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Apr 03 17 01:10 ET
Japan released its quarterly Tankan survey earlier today. The large manufacturer DI improved to +12 in 1Q17, from +10 in the prior quarter. However, this missed expectations of a bigger improvement to +14. The large non-manufacturer DI rose to +20, compared with consensus of +19% and 4Q16's +18, mainly driven by higher confidence in services and construction sectors.
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Weekly Fundamentals - Oil Rallied but Concerns over Fundamentals Remain Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sun Apr 02 17 05:56 ET
The front-month WTI crude contract rose above US$ 50/bbl again on Thursday and settled at a 3-week high of US$ 50.6/bbl, up +5.48%, for the week. The contract appeared to have found a bottom at US$ 47.01 last week. Brent crude oil rebounded after briefly breaking below US$50/bbl last week. The front-month contract rallied for 4 consecutive day and ended the week at US$ 52.83/bbl, up +4%.
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Sentiment Buoyed. US Revealed Infrastructural Plan without Further Details Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Mar 31 17 01:12 ET
Equities climbed higher in both Europe and the US, buoyed by Trump's US$1 trillion infrastructural plan. While the former was driven by industrial, mining and energy shares, the latter was boosted by energy and financial sectors. The broad European Stoxx 600 index gained +0.5% with the basic resources index rose gaining +1.6% and the oil & gas index up +1.2%.
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ECB Move Overshadowed Formal Brexit Trigger. Oil Prices Gained on Less than Expected Stock-build Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Mar 30 17 01:08 ET
Market reaction to the formal announcement of Brexit was relatively muted. GBPUSD initially extended weakness to a 1-week low of 1.2375 but then recovered to settle at 1.2432, down -0.13%. Euro was the worst performer among major currencies amidst speculations that the ECB would be cautious about changing its forward guidance on stimulus measures.
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Strong Consumer Confidence Lifted Risk Appetite Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Mar 29 17 01:23 ET
Wall Street and Treasury yields rebounded, hinging on the sharp rise in US consumer sentiment. While confidence/sentiment indices have been considered as soft data, vs hard data such as GDP growth and employment, the strong reading nonetheless reflects consumers' expectations on tax reform and growth. Wall Street gained with both DJIA and S&P 500 indices adding +0.73% for the day.
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Investors Remained Cautious as Trump's Implementation Ability in Question Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Mar 28 17 01:37 ET
Stock markets continue to tread water as investors worried about Donald Trump's ability to advance tax reform after failing to repeal Obamacare. Wall Street weakened further, with DJIA and S&P 500 indices losing -0.22% and -0.1% respectively. European shares also fell with the broad Stoxx 600 index slipping-0.4% for the day. US Treasury prices firmed, sending yields lower.
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Market Gauges Implications of AHCA Withdrawal on Tax Reforms Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Mar 27 17 01:24 ET
The market maintained a risk-off mode on Monday as Trump pulled the healthcare bill (AHCA) from the House minutes before vote last Friday. The government has decided to move on and focus on tax reform bills. As US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested, "Health care is complicated, tax reform is a lot simpler in some ways". Nonetheless, investors are concerned the failure of AHCA would provide less fiscal headroom for the tax plans, not to mention the divisions within Republicans.
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