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Oil N' Gold Focus Reports
Market Expects ECB to Extend Stimuli Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Dec 08 16 02:22 ET
Sentiment remains upbeat ahead of the ECB meeting. European shares extended gains although Italy's Treasury denied that it would seek 15B of financial assistance ...
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Equities Firmed as Italy Plans to Nationalize Banks. Investors Shrugged Off Italian Referendum Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Dec 07 16 00:39 ET
Stock markets rallied ahead of ECB meeting. Led by the +4.4% rally in the banking sector, European shares rose with the broad Stoxx 600 index up +1%. Italian bank shares jumped +9%, lifting the country's FTSEMib index by +4.15% at close.
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Weak Sentiment Contained as Investors Move to ECB from Italian Referendum Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Dec 06 16 00:41 ET
Negative sentiment as a result of a "no" vote in the Italian referendum was rather contained. Both European and US' stocks recovered after initial selloff. Europe's Stoxx 600 index gained +0.56% for the day.
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Geopolitical Uncertainty in Europe Dampens Sentiment Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Dec 05 16 01:24 ET
Political events dominate financial markets on Monday. First, the Italian referendum is completed with voters REJECTING to implement the senate reform. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced he would resign, as promised.
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Weekly Fundamentals - Both OPEC and US Payrolls Sent Pleasant Surprises Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sun Dec 04 16 04:15 ET
As we mentioned in the beginning of the week, the two critical events of the week were OPEC's meeting and US employment report. Both surprised the market to the upside. For the former, OPEC announced after the meeting in Vienna that it targets to cut production to 32.5M bpd, representing a -1.2M bpd, or -3.7%, reduction from October levels.
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Inflationary Pressure due to Higher Oil Prices Weighed on Equities Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Dec 02 16 00:05 ET
OPEC's deal to cut output continues to drive oil prices higher, sending both crude oil benchmarks above US$50/bbl. Energy shares also strengthened, but the broader stock indices were mixed. US dollar remained firmed and Treasury yields climbed further higher.
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Oil Prices Jump as OPEC Agrees to Cut Output Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Dec 01 16 00:29 ET
Oil prices rallied sharply as OPEC agreed to cut. The organization announced that it targets to cut production to 32.5M bpd, the lower end of the range indicated the "Algiers Accord" in September. It also represents a -1.2M bpd, or -3.7%, reduction from October levels. Meanwhile, OPEC noted that non-OPEC countries have also agreed to cut output by -0.6M bpd with half of the contribution coming from Russia.
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Oil Prices Plunge as Market Awaits OPEC Meeting Outcome Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Nov 30 16 00:22 ET
As the market is focused on the OPEC meeting in Vienna today, energy prices fell amidst concerns over disappointing outcomes. The increase in Cushing stockpile also added pressure to oil prices. The front-month WTI crude oil contract plunged -3.93% while the Brent contract fell -3.86% for the day. Stock markets were mixed.
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Energy Prices Rebounded as OPEC Ministers Hinted on Output Deal. Sentiment Damped by Italian Referendum Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Nov 29 16 00:36 ET
Energy prices rebounded on comments from Iraqi oil minister that he is "optimistic" of a deal in Vienna. The front-month WTI crude oil contract gained +2.22% to settle at 47.08 while the Brent contract added +2.12% to close at 48.24. For refined oil products, gasoline and heating oil prices rose almost +3% for the day.
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OPEC Meeting and US Payrolls Focuses of the Week Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Nov 28 16 01:08 ET

US dollar retreated on profit-taking and as the market awaits the US employment report for November. The DXY index slipped -0.64% to 100.84 at the time of writing this report. Crude oil prices remained under pressure with both benchmarks slipping almost -0.4% so far today. The market is worried about the outcome of the OPEC meeting in Vienna later this week. Indeed, we have been less optimistic than the market. We expect lack of compliance as usual by OPEC members even if an output cut/freeze cut can be reached. We have a light calendar today. In Europe, the ECB would release its money and credit aggregates for October while Italy will report that business and consumer confidence indices for November. Moreover, the OECD will release its latest assessment of the global economic outlook.

For the week ahead, the focus is on OPEC's formal meeting in Vienna this Wednesday and the release of US non-farm payrolls on Friday. For the former, uncertainty remains high. The latest news is that while some members, such as Algeria and Venezuela, seek to reach a deal to output cut, Saudi Arabia has recently suggested that a rate cut might not be needed as demand should recover next year. Khalid Al-Falih, the Kingdom's oil minister indicated that with oil demand expected to "recover in 2017, then prices will stabilize, and this will happen without an intervention from OPEC". Regarding the cancellation of the pre-meeting discussion originally scheduled on Monday, he noted that "it's not beneficial to attend the meeting with producers from outside OPEC before holding meetings within OPEC and deciding whether to cut or continue with current levels of production". In the meantime, Algeria and Venezuela continue to seek support from Russia with energy ministers of both countries will meet in Algiers and then travel to Moscow on Monday.

Concerning the US employment report, non-farm payrolls probably increased +170K in November, after a +161K addition a month ago. The unemployment rate might have stayed unchanged 4.9%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings probably increased +0.3%, in turn lifting the annual growth by one-tenth. Ahead of it would be Wednesday's ADP report. It is expected that the number of employment rose +160K in November, up from a +147K addition in the prior month.

Elsewhere, China would release its PMI indices on Thursday. The official manufacturing PMI probably slipped to 51 in November form 51.2 a month ago. Caixin's PMI manufacturing index probably has dropped -0.3 point to 50.9 for the month. Europe would also release a number of PMI data Thursday. The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone probably stayed unrevised at 53.7, while that the for UK might have edged +0.1 point higher to 54.4.

 
Weekly Fundamentals - Awaiting OPEC Deal Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Nov 26 16 09:42 ET
Crude oil has been experiencing volatile trading in recent weeks as the market gauges the possibility of an output cur/freeze deal at the formal OPEC meeting on November 30. Both the WTI and Brent crude benchmarks rose above US$50/bbl in early-mid October as OPEC announced on September 28 that the members tentatively agreed to limit production, reducing the aggregate output to 32.5-33M bpd.
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