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Oil N' Gold Focus Reports
Focus Turns to June as March Fed Funds Rate Hike Certain Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Mar 13 17 01:23 ET
Upbeat sentiment driven by strong US employment carried forward to Asian session on Monday. Shares in Asia Pacific generally strengthened with Japan's Nikkei 225 index adding around +0.2% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gaining +0.89%. Last Friday, Wall Street climbed higher with DJIA and S&P 500 indices up +0.21% and +0.33% respectively.
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Weekly Fundamentals - US Oil Output may Disrupt Improvements in Demand/Supply Fundamentals Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sun Mar 12 17 04:40 ET
WTI crude oil prices fell for 5 consecutive days last week, breaking below US$50/bbl last Thursday for the first time since OPEC/ non-OPEC announced to cut output last December. the key reason for the selloff was concerns over US supply. Besides the latest weekly US crude oil inventory data rising to a fresh record high, the EIA has recently revised higher its US production forecast for 2017 and 2019.
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WTI Broke Below US$50/bbl,Reaching Lowest Level in 2017 Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Mar 10 17 01:37 ET
WTI crude oil prices fell below US$50/bbl for the first time since last December, on concerns over rising US supply. Record high US inventory raised concerns that the rapid increase in US output would be unable to be offset by OPEC/non-OPEC production cut. Meanwhile, US president Donald Trump's move to deregulate the energy sector would be encouraging further rise in oil investment, raising concerns about the oil market fundamentals.
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Concerns over US Supply Sent Oil Prices to Lower End of Recent Ranges Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Mar 09 17 01:08 ET
Stock build in US oil inventory dragged down crude oil prices, sending both benchmarks over -5% lower for the day. The front-month WTI contract plunged to a 3-month low of 50.05 before settling at 50.28, down -5.38%. The Brent crude contract fell to as low as 52.93 before ending the day at 53.11, down -5.03%. This also caused the decline in energy shares which in turned led Wall Street down for a third consecutive day.
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Crude Oil Prices Dropped amidst Double-Digit Increase in Inventory Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Mar 08 17 00:46 ET
Crude oil prices were pressured as US inventory showed double-digit increase last week. Saudi Arabia suggested that oil fundamentals improved but mainly driven by the Kingdom's bigger-than-promised output cut. The front-month WTI contract fell for a second consecutive day, losing -0.11%, to 53.14. The Brent contract slipped -0.16% to settle at 55.92.
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Equities Slipped in Renewed Geopolitical Tensions, Imminent Fed Rate Hike. Crude Oil Mixed Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Mar 07 17 00:21 ET
Equities weakened a tad as investors assessed the impact of a Fed funds rate hike which would come as soon as next week. Meanwhile, renewed geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment, as US President Donald Trump signed a revised executive order on Monday for a 90-day travel ban to the United States from 6 Muslim-majority countries.
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Hawkish Yellen Pushes March Rate Hike Speculations Further Higher Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Mar 06 17 00:36 ET
It appears little doubt that the Fed would raise the policy rate at it March 15 meeting. Chair Janet Yellen's speech last Friday proved hawkish, indicating that the FOMC would "evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate".
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Weekly Fundamentals - Crude Oil Spreads Improved in Early March Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Mar 04 17 09:31 ET
Following the sharp weakening in the last two weeks of February, Brent spreads have improved modestly over the past few days. The calendar spread from May to June fell from US$0.06/bbl contango per barrel on February 21 to US$0.33/bbl contango on February 28. It then improved, from this 2.5 week low to US$0.26/bbl contango last Friday.
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March Rate Hike Looks Imminent Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Mar 03 17 00:40 ET
Hopes of a Fed funds rate hike in March heightened further, after speeches of Governors Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard. CME's 30-day Fed funds futures now price in a 75.3% chance of rate hike in March, up from 66.4% a day ago. The probability is prone to increase further if the February employment report, due next Friday, proves encouraging.
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Market Prices in over 65% of March Rate Hike Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Mar 02 17 01:46 ET
US equities gathered momentum with both DJIA and S&P 500 gaining over +1% at close. Note also that DJIA has risen above 21000 for the first time on record. The market was apparently thrilled by Donald Trump's "optimistic" policy address, though no details were given on all policy areas, including tax reform and expansion of infrastructural spending.
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Trump's Address Contains No Surprise Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Mar 01 17 00:33 ET
US President Donald Trump's State of the Union address sent little surprise to the market. Although, before Trump's address, the press secretary noted that "the President will lay out an optimistic vision for the country, crossing traditional lines of party, race and socioeconomic status", the details on tax reform, infrastructural spending and other policies were lacking.
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