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Oil N' Gold Focus Reports
Weekly Fundamentals - Awaiting OPEC Deal Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Nov 26 16 09:42 ET
Crude oil has been experiencing volatile trading in recent weeks as the market gauges the possibility of an output cur/freeze deal at the formal OPEC meeting on November 30. Both the WTI and Brent crude benchmarks rose above US$50/bbl in early-mid October as OPEC announced on September 28 that the members tentatively agreed to limit production, reducing the aggregate output to 32.5-33M bpd.
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Markets Shrugg Off Rumors of ECB's QE Delay Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Nov 25 16 00:43 ET
With the US markets closed on Thanksgiving Day holiday, the focus is on Europe. Equities were generally firmer with the STOXX 600 index adding +0.3%. Regional indices also climbed higher with Germany's DAX up 0.3% and UK's FTSE up +0.2%. Euro, the single currency, remained range-bound against US dollar,...
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USD and Yields Soar as FOMC Minutes Affirmed Rate Hike Coming Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Nov 24 16 01:47 ET
US dollar index (DXY) resumed recent rally, soaring to a new 13-year high of 101.91 as the November FOMC minutes reinforced conviction of rate hike in December.US Treasury yields also climbed higher with the 2-year and 10-year yields adding +4 bps and +3.6 bps to 1.135% and 2.355% respectively.
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OPEC Cut Deal More Uncertain as Iran and Iraq Refuse to Join Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Nov 23 16 00:35 ET
Crude oil prices had a volatility day as the preliminary OPEC meeting in Vienna has increased the uncertainty for an output deal next week. Prices initially extended the rally on reports suggesting that the members were proposing a -4.5% cut for most countries. This would result in faster output reduction than the proposal first outlined in September.
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Crude Oil Soared to 3-Week High. All Eyes on OPEC Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Nov 22 16 00:43 ET
Crude oil prices rallied on renewed hopes of an OPEC output cut/freeze deal. Russian President Putin indicated, at a news conference after the APEC summit on Sunday, that there is a "high probability" that a deal to limit oil production would be reached at the November 30 OPEC meeting. He added that Russia would "do everything" that the OPEC members "are expecting… To freeze crude production is not an issue for us". This echoed Iranian oil minister Bijan Zangeneh's comment that OPEC is "highly likely" to reach a final agreement to curb oil production at the November meeting.
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Dollar Firmed at 13-Year High, Crude Oil Gained on Hopes of OPEC Deal Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Nov 21 16 01:37 ET
US dollar remains first in Asia Monday, after the bond-driven rally that had sent the USD index (DXY) to the highest level since 2003 last week. The strength in US dollar has put commodity currencies under pressure and paused the post-Trump rally in Wall Street. Australian dollar fell for a second consecutive week, losing -2.89% against US dollar last week following a -1.56% in the prior week. New Zealand dollar also recorded a -1.43% against US dollar, after a -2.84% a week ago.
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Yellen Reinforced Hopes of Rate Hike in December Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Nov 18 16 01:39 ET
US dollar extended recent rally as rate hike expectations were reinforced by Fed Chair Yellen's comments. US Treasury yields were also higher with 2-year yield and 10-year yield adding +1 bps and +5 bps to 1.03% and 2.28% respectively. Wall Street strengthened on better-than-expected macroeconomic data. DJIA and S&P 500 indices adding +0.19% and +0.47% respectively. In the commodity sector, crude oil had a volatile day with the benchmark contracts initially rising to 2-week highs before erasing gains.
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Oil Prices Pared Gains as US Inventory Increased More than Expected Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Nov 16 16 23:37 ET
Crude oil prices retreated, on profit-taking and as US inventory rose more than expected. The front-month WTI crude contract slipped -0.52% while the Brent contract dropped -0.68%. Both rallied more than +5% in the prior day. It looks like now that a rate hike in December is fully priced in with Bloomberg’s estimate and CME’s 30-day Fed fund futures pricing in 96% and 90% chance respectively. US dollar strengthened further with the USD index (DXY) soaring to a 13-year high of 100.57 before pullback. Wall Street slipped with DIJA and S&P 500 indices losing -0.29% and -0.16% respectively.
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Bond Yields Firmed on Conviction that Higher Growth and Inflation Warrant Rate Hike Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Nov 14 16 23:46 ET
The selloff in bond markets continued amidst expectations of higher growth and inflation in the US under Trump's presidency. The10-year Treasury yield soared +7 bps to 2.22%. Led by US Treasury, 10-year Bunds and Gilts also climbed higher, rising +0.5 bps and +4 bps respectively. Yet, ECB's Vitor Constancio warned that, while Trump's presidency might lead to higher US growth...
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New Zealand Earthquake and Lack of Growth Momentum in China Weigh on Sentiment Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Nov 14 16 01:53 ET
A series of powerful earthquakes in New Zealand triggered tsunami and caused at least two dead. The impact on the financial markets is evolving. NZDUSD extends the selloff for a 4th day, dropping to a one-month low of 0.7071, while AUDNZD has risen to a 2-week high of 1.6048, at the time of writing this note. RBNZ cut the OCR by -25 bps to a new record low of 1.75% last week.
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Weekly Fundamentals - Oil Declined on Concerns over Trump's Policies Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Nov 12 16 12:28 ET
Financial markets had a roller-coaster week as Donald Trump surprisingly won the US presidential election. However, after his victory was confirmed, risk appetite soon returned amidst hopes that Trump's pro-growth policy is bullish to the financial market. Trump proposes a looser fiscal policy, which could lead to higher growth and inflation risk premia.
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