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Oil N' Gold Focus Reports
Weekly Fundamentals - Oil Prices Slumped as World Production Remains Ample Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Jun 03 17 13:16 ET
Crude oil plunged last week, extending the second week of week following the OPEC/ non-OPEC meeting. The market was concerned that the effect of the extension of output cut deal would be offset by US' increase in investment and the ramp-up of production by OPEC members that are exempted from the cut. The front-month WTI crude oil contract fell -4.3% while the Brent contract was down -4.22% for the week.
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Traders Dumped Oil as Russia Signaled It's Ready to Live With Prices at US$40/bbl Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Jun 02 17 03:58 ET
Both crude oil benchmarks were pressured below US$50/bbl ahead of the US session on Friday. Energy prices climbed higher on early trading Thursday as US crude oil inventory recorded another week of decline. Gains were, however, paired later in the day as US production remained elevated and Russian oil minister indicated that the country can accept oil price as US$40/bbl. The front-month WTI crude oil contract initially rose to 49.17 before ending the day at 48.36, up +0.08%.
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Oil Plunged on Production Growth in Nigeria and Libya Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jun 01 17 00:25 ET
Crude oil price slumped on concerns over supply glut. A Reuters survey indicated that OPEC production rose in May, as Nigeria and Libya raised output. These two countries are exempted from the output cut deal. It was estimated that Libya production rose to a fresh 3-year high of 0.83M bpd last month. The front-month WTI crude oil contract plunged to a 3-week low of 47.73 before settling at 48.32, down -2.7%, while the Brent contract slumped to 50.31 at close, down -2.95%.
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Treasury Yields, USD Fell on Rate Hike Prospect Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue May 30 17 22:29 ET
Investors remained cautious ahead of the US employment report due Friday. Meanwhile, the mild improvement in price levels has raised doubt over the pace of Fed funds rate hike. US dollar softened against major currencies with the DXY index settling at 97.28 after initially soaring to a 1-week high of 97.78. Treasuries firm, sending yields lower. 2-year yields dropped -2 points to 1.29% while US 10-year yields were down -4 points to 2.21%.
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Euro Fell as ECB Hinted to Maintain Easing. Political Italy in Italy Soars Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue May 30 17 00:39 ET
The highlights of an otherwise quiet day are ECB President Mario Draghi's speech and speculations over an early election in Italy. For the first issue, Draghi's speech before the European parliament was focused on two issues: US' neo-protectionist stance and Eurozone's economic outlook. President acknowledged the "solid" economic recovery, but reiterated the commitment to provide ultra accommodative monetary measures.
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WTI Crude Price Below US$50/bbl. Supply Concerns Remain as US Ramps Up Production Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon May 29 17 05:13 ET
Energy prices remained soft on Monday, with both US and UK markets closed on public holiday. Investors took profit after the OPEC/non-OPEC announcement to extend output cut for 9 months, a scenario that had been widely anticipated. Over the past years, the OPEC has been facing a dilemma: to cut output in order to lift oil price, or to maintain production level so as to compete with the US for market share. It would not be an easy choice and the consequence of either option would be problematic.
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Oil Prices Slumped after OPEC Deal Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu May 25 17 23:46 ET
Crude oil prices slumped over -4% on profit-taking as the decision after the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting was in line with market expectations. Recall that, after OPEC/non-OPEC announced to take coordinated action to reduce output late last year (effective January 2017), crude oil benchmarks recovered from low-40 levels in November 2016 to above US$55/bbl in January this year.
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Greenback Soft on Uncertain Rate Hike Path after June Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu May 25 17 02:11 ET
Central bank news captured the spotlight on Wednesday, with the FOMC minutes and the BOC meeting the major market movers. For the former, while policymakers basically affirmed a rate hike in June, the future rate path remained uncertain. Concerns over the US economic outlook were aggravated by the indications that the Fed's balance sheet reduction might begin in as soon as later this year. By contrast, market sentiment was buoyed by BOC's more upbeat comments on global and domestic growth developments.
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USD Higher as ECB Official Affirmed Forward Guidance. FOMC Minutes Awaited Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue May 23 17 23:12 ET
Following a modestly risk-off opening due to the terrorist attack in Manchester, United Kingdom, financial markets were buoyed by upbeat macroeconomic data. US dollar strengthened ahead of the FOMC minutes while the euro was a tad softer as ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure indicated that there's no need to change policy exit sequencing from that communicated by the bank previously.
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Single Currency Making New High as Merkel Complained "Too Weak" Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon May 22 17 22:55 ET
Crude oil prices remained firm ahead of the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting later this week. The front-month WTI crude oil contract extended the recent rally, accumulating gains of +4.2% over the past 4 days, and settled at 50.73. Adding +0.49% on Monday, the Brent contract also strengthened for a 4th consecutive day, closing at 53.87 before rising to as high as 54.37 in early trading. In the FX market, euro's strength accelerated as German Chancellor suggesting that it's too weak.
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Busy Week Ahead - OPEC, FOMC Minutes and BOC Meeting Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sun May 21 17 23:56 ET
Crude oil prices extend last week's strength in Asia Monday. With both benchmarks holding above US$ 50/bbl, the market is awaiting the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting schedule on May 25. The market has priced in an output extension deal until March 2018. We are concerned that the deal would be incapable of revitalizing the energy prices further from current levels due to US' rapid shale investment. In the FX market, US dollar stabilized after the selloff over the past week.
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