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Oil N' Gold Focus Reports
US Dollar Fell as Inflation Likely Stays Low for Longer. Unpopular Trump Might Further Delay Fiscal Stimulus Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 17 17 00:03 ET
US dollar and Treasuries were pressured, driven by the July FOMC minutes and political drama in the White House. After initially jumping to a two-day high after the release of the minutes, the DXY index reversed the gains and the day -0.33% lower. Treasury prices strengthened, sending 2-year yields -3 points lower to 1.33% and 10-year yields -5 points to 2.23%. In the commodity sector, crude oil prices continued to fall, despite huge decline in inventory and weakness in US dollar. The increase in US production was weighing on prices.
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Oil Prices Range-Bounded as Torn Between Inventory Draw and Firm USD Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Aug 15 17 23:38 ET
Strong economic indicators and easing geopolitical tensions kept US dollar firm, lifting the DXY index for a second consecutive day. Indeed, the greenback was higher against major currencies and were particularly strong against British pound (+1.02%) and Japanese yen (+0.9%), of which the weakness was driven by improving risk appetite.
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Risk Appetite Improved as Geopolitical Tensions Cooled Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Aug 14 17 22:43 ET
Market sentiment improved as the perceived threat of war between North Korea and the US cooled down. Better risk appetite was exemplified in the retreat in Swiss franc and Japanese yen, as well as a lift in risky assets. The franc pared most of the gains made over the past week, losing 0.7-0.8% against US dollar and the euro.
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US Inflation Persistently Soft; China Data Disappoint in July Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Aug 14 17 00:32 ET
Persistent weakness in consumer price levels has raised concerns of how long the current situation would sustain. This also has made the upcoming FOMC minutes more critical. In the past several meeting minutes, the Fed acknowledged weakness in inflation but stressed the situation was transitory...
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Weekly Fundamentals - Aluminum Soared in Trump's Trade Complaint While Silver Rose on Heightened Geopolitical Tensions Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sun Aug 13 17 04:44 ET
The best performer in the commodity market last week was natural gas. EIA's report showed that the US exported more natural gas than it imported in three of the first five months this year. This signals a reversal of the net imports trend over the past 6 decades. In the metal complex, aluminum shone with the 3-month LME contract breaching above US$2000/oz for the first time since 4Q14.
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Risk Aversion Intensified as Trump and Kim Intensified War of Words Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 10 17 23:48 ET
Financial markets remained in risk-averse mode as the US and North Korea stepped up war of words with China warning Donald Trump that his comments would only aggravate the situation. Wall Street slumped, following decline in Asian and European markets, alongside the jump in the VIX "fear" index.
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Flee to Safe Havens on Heightening North Korea Crisis Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 10 17 00:37 ET
Precious metals and safe- haven currencies (such as Japanese yen and Swiss franc) shone as Korean Peninsula tensions intensified. After UNSC passed sanctions on North Korea with a 15-0 vote over the weekend, US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un threatened each other of war. Following Trump's comment that North Korea would "be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen"...
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US Dollar Mixed as Strong Job Data Offset by Ongoing Concerns of Weak Inflation; China CPI Disappoints Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Aug 09 17 00:09 ET
US dollar was mixed as strong sentiment from another upbeat job data was partly offset by a dovish Fed speaker. US dollar index initially rose to a 2-week high of 93.88 before settling at 93.65, up +0.24%. US Treasury yields climbed higher amidst strong 3-year note auction. The next focus is on the 10 year auction worth of US$23B. The rise is US yields was despite diminished hopes of a Fed funds rate hike in December.
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China Trade Data Disappointed, CPI Next Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Aug 08 17 00:30 ET
Energy prices softened further ahead of the release of the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting statement. Disappointing Chinese trade data might have also pressured prices. Currently trading at 49.22, the front-month WTI crude oil contract has dropped -0.34% in Asian session today, following a -0.38% drop on the prior day.
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US CPI In Focus Following Strong Employment Report Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Aug 07 17 01:18 ET
US dollar remained firm in Asian session on Monday. Apart from the strong employment report that has heightened bets over a December Fed funds rate hike. Comments from White House economic adviser Gary Cohn also raised hopes better US growth outlook. Cohn noted that the current US corporate tax rate, at 35%, is too high when compared with the average of 23% in OECD economies.
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Weekly Fundamental - Geopolitics Heightened; OPEC Meeting in Focus Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sun Aug 06 17 03:02 ET
Both crude oil prices and US dollar strengthened after strong nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. While the two assets usually displayed negative correlation (as crude oil price is denominated in USD), the positive movement last Friday was driven by better economic outlook and heightened Fed funds rate hike expectations, respectively.
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