Crude oil extends gains to 82 in Asian session today as upbeat macroeconomic prospects triggered speculations for strong energy demand. Currently trading at 81.95, the front-month contract for WTI crude oil rise has risen for 3 out of 4 weeks. Gold changes in little although the dollar weakens against the euro and commodity currencies.

The correlation between crude oil and stock markets remains strong, indicating the commodity has been heavily driven by macro-front. Today, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index surges to a 6-week high as the market is thrilled by the better-than-expected US employment data released last Friday.

The French president Nicolas Sarkozy's comment on EU's assistance to Greece further increased confidence that the Greek government is capable of overcoming the deficit problem itself. After a meeting with Greek Prime minister George Papandreou, Sarkozy said that 'if it were necessary, the states of the euro zone would fulfill their commitments...and 'we have measures, we are ready, we are determined' to help Greece if it is needed.

With regard to prevention of another sovereign crisis, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the government has been considering measures including creation of a European Monetary Fund, something similar to the IMF.

Spread between 5-year Greece-Germany bond yields narrowed to 3.78% last Friday from 4.524%, the highest level in more than 10 years, on February 25. This signals investors have been more comfortable with the situation in Greece.

As Fed officials have reiterated to keep the Fed funds rate at 0-0.25% for extended period of time, speculations that a Fed rate hike will come as early as this year diminishes. The Fed funds futures showed a 37% chance that policymakers will increase interest rates by November, compared with 43% in the previous month. For this reason, USD has not been rising with strong US data in recent weeks. Moreover, as market sentiment improves, positive economic data further increases risk appetite and drive investors to high-yield assets.

While we have a light calendar today, 2 central banks, RBNZ and SNB, will be meeting later this week on rate decisions. We expect both banks will leave current policy rates unchanged but acknowledge economic recovery in recent months. Ways to withdraw stimulus measures implemented during recession last year may also be discussed.

Commitments of Traders:

Crude Oil: Net speculative long positions rose for the third week to 91.4K contracts. Positive economic data and eased concerns in Greece's deficit issue spurred investment

Natural Gas: Net speculative short positions increased further to 170.7K contracts. Price continued to plunge despite draw in gas storage as investors view the the decline in inventory level too little despite the extremely cold weather in recent months. The US Energy Department said that strong supply outlook has been the main reason weighing down gas price

Gold: Net speculative long positions surged to a 4-week high at 207.4K last week. Gold finally managed to hold sustainably above 1100 after the upside break of the upper trendline of the decline from 1227.5 to 1044.5. Investment inflow was also driven by broad-based strength in the commodity sector

Silver: In tandem with gold, net speculative long positions in silver surged to 31.1K. Improved risk appetite amid encouraging economic data and diminished sovereign risk in Greece drove investment demand

Platinum: Net longs rebounded increased modestly to 21.1Kcontracts, the highest level since December 2009. Platinum's fundamental is strong as auto sector recovers after the crisis in 2008/09. Platinum price has rooms to advance higher and net speculative long positions should rise further