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Oil Price Slips Despite Huge Withdrawal in Crude Inventory, Refinery Products Are Oversupplied Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 01 09 11:04 ET

Crude oil inventory declined -3.66 mmb, more than market expectation of -2 mmb, to 350.2 mmb in the week ended June 26. Cushing stocks gained slightly after falling for 4 consecutive weeks.

Concerning refinery products, gasoline stocks rose for the 3rd straight week but at a slower magnitude than the prior week. However, increase in distillate inventory gathered momentum and gained more than 4.5 mmb over the past 2 weeks.

The benchmark contract for crude oil plunges to 70.3 from as high as 71.85 after the report. Investors are probably disappointed by the surge in petroleum product stockpiles and the moderation in withdrawal in crude inventory.

US Oil Inventory

Weekly change in inventory as of 26/06/09 Actual Change Market Expectation Previous
Crude oil 350.2 mmb -3.66 mmb -2.00 mmb -3.87 mmb
Gasoline 211.2 mmb +2.33 mmb +2.00mmb +3.87 mmb
Distillate 155.0 mmb +2.90 mmb +1.50 mmb +2.08 mmb

Comparison between API and EIA reports:

API (Jun 26)
EIA (Jun 26)
Actual
Market expectation
Inventory
Forecast (using API's inventory level)
Inventory
Crude oil
-6.82 mmb
-2.01 mmb
349.8 mmb
-3.85 mmb
350 mmb
Gasoline
+0.21 mmb
+1.68 mmb
211.6 mmb
+3.10 mmb
212 mmb
Distillate
+0.72 mmb
+1.53 mmb
154.6 mmb
+2.90 mmb
155 mmb

API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department (EIA)for its weekly survey.  Oil inventories from the API and EIA moved in the same direction for over 70% of the time, using data in the past 4 years.  

Source: Bloomberg, API, EIA

 

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