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Return of Risk Aversion Drove Crude's Slide from 1-Week High Print E-mail
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Aug 30 10 23:58 ET

Investors turned risk averse again after the US data showed that personal income grew less than expected. Moreover, the market was disappointed as President Obama’s speech in the Rose Garden yesterday failed to outline concrete measures to boost the recovery. Wall Street opened lowered and continued heading south throughout the day with DJIA and S&P 500 losing -1.39% and -1.47% respectively. For the commodity complex, crude oil dropped, for the first time in 4 day, after climbing to 75.58, the highest level in more than a week, amid worries over demand outlook. Gold price traded sideways with price settling 1239.2, up +0.11%.

The market was disappointing by the headline US personal income data which grew +0.2% in July, following a flat reading in June. This was slightly below consensus forecast of +0.3%. This probably triggered concerns about the country’s employment situation. Yet, the set of data was not all bad. Spending rose +0.4%, exceeding expectation of +0.3% and June’s flat reading, as mainly driven by rise in durable goods consumption. Moreover, saving rate dropped to 5.9% in July from a downwardly revised 6.2% a month ago. A decline in saving rate at the current stage indicates positive consumer spending outlook.

US President Obama spoke after meeting with his economic team that the government will examine ‘additional measures’ to promote ‘growth and hiring in the short term’ and increase ‘competitiveness in the long term’. Measures unveiled include extending the tax cuts for the middle class that are set to expire this year, redoubling investment in clean energy and R&D and rebuilding more of our infrastructure for the future. These plans were mentioned in the past and investors were not satisfied that the President has not talked about new plans as the pace of recovery appeared to have slowed down.

Today in Asia, equities slumped as led by Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average which plunged -2.59% as Japanese yen strengthened. Economic data released was mixed. Japan’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.1 in August from 52.8 a month ago while industrial production grew +0.3% m/m in July after contracting -1.1% in June. The market had anticipated another month of decline. Also, pressuring the market was weaker-than-expected earnings results from Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. The Taiwan-listed, world’s largest electronic manufacturer’s 2Q10 net profit was -14% below consensus as the company raised wages after a number of suicides among workers in China.

In US session, Chicago PMI probably slid to 57.5 in August from 62.3 a month ago while consumer confidence index should have climbed to 51 in August from 50.4 in July. The FOMC minutes for August will also be released. After market close, the industry-sponsored API will report its estimates for oil inventory. The market anticipates crude inventory increased +1.55 mmb while that for gasoline and distillate dropped -0.38 mmb and +1.00 mmb, respectively.

 

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