Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil rose further to as high as 73.23 but retreats since then. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday outlook is turned neutral and some pull back might be seen. Nevertheless, break of 66.79 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, another rise is still in favor and above 73.23 will target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, however, note bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 66.79 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed and rise from 43.83 has likely completed. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 56.07/60.08 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. Break will target next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23). On the downside, below 66.79 support will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to 56.07/60.8 support zone for confirmation.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart