Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil edges higher to 80.51 earlier today before retreating mildly. Intraday bias remains on the upside with 77.76 minor support intact. As discussed before, fall fro 83.95 has completed with three waves down to 69.50 already. This in turn argues that 83.95 might not be the top yet and further rise should be seen to retest this high first. On the downside, below 77.76 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 76.76). However, note that break of 72.66 support is needed to indicate that rise from 69.50 has completed. Otherwise, another rise would be in favor.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The stronger rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 72.43 support is now needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart