Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil edged higher to 82.41 earlier today but again, upside momentum remains quite unconvincing. Nevertheless, further rise is still in favor as long as 79.75 minor support holds, towards 83.95 high. However, break of 79.75 will argue that a short term top is already formed and should bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 69.50 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart