Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil dropped further last week and breached mentioned 61.8% retracement of 77.28 to 100.42 at 86.12 as expected. Deeper decline is still in favor in near term. But as noted before, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 support and bring rebound. So focus will be on reversal sign as the current decline extends. On the upside, above 87.42 resistance will indicate short term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 93.66 resistance and above first.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
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