Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
After some volatility, crude oil dipped further to 84.05 last week before recovering mildly. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideway trading first. Nonetheless, note that crude oil is still staying inside near term falling channel. As long as 89.22 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still in favor. Below 84.05 will target 80 psychological level next. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 89.22 should indicate short term reversal and target 93.66 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
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