Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's retreat was contained at 1211.7 and recent rebound from 1155.6 resumed by climbing to as high as 1246 last week. In spite of the further rally, upside momentum is clearly diminishing, as seen in bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. We'd continue to expect strong resistance ahead of 1266.5 high to conclude the rebound from 1155.6 and bring reversal. Break of 1211.7 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1155.6.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1155.6 is strong, there is no change in our bearish view. That is, rally from 1044.5 should have completed at 1266.5. More importantly, whole medium term rise from 681 should have finished with five waves up too, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Whole fall from 1266.5 is expected to resume sooner or later to 1044.5 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 681 to 1266.5 at 1042.8) at least. After all, we'll stay medium term bearish in gold as long as 1266.5 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, we're proposing that 1266.5 is an important medium term top in gold and we should see a sizable correction going forward. A breach of 1000 psychological level is possible. However, there is no indication of long term up trend reversal yet. We'd maintain the long term bullish view and expect whole up trend from 1999 low of 253 to continue to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level after completing the correction from 1266.5.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Monthly Chart