Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural retreats sharply after hitting 6.18 high. While an intraday top is in place, short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 5.779 minor support holds. As discussed before, a short term bottom should be formed at 5.21 after just missing 5.192 long term support on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Further rise is expected to be seen to trend line resistance at 6.43 and break there will put focus to 6.978 resistance. On the downside, below 5.779 will dampen this case and turn outlook neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the three wave structure of the rise from 4.3 to 13.69 argues that it's part of a longer term consolidation that started at 15.65. The current fall from 13.69 should represent the third leg of such consolidation and has just missed 5.192 long term support. With daily MACD back above signal line, short term outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Firm break of 6.978 resistance will be the first signal that whole decline from 13.6 has completed, with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. In such case, strong rally should be seen towards 8.88 resistance first. On the downside, though, below 5.21 will indicate that fall from 13.6 is still in progress. But downside should be contained by 4.3 low and bring strong rebound.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart

---