Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas' break of 3.717 support affirms our view that triangle consolidation from 3.155 has completed at 4.138. At this point, intraday bias remains mildly on the downside as long as 3.799 minor resistance holds. Further fall should be seen to 3.155/388 support zone next and firm break there will bring down trend resumption. On the upside, above 3.799 will turn intraday outlook neutral first and delay the bearish view as, in such case, the consolidation might not be over yet.

In the bigger picture, recent development suggests that down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. As such decline is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005, further fall could be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. Break of 3.717 support is the first signal of down trend resumption while break of 3.155 low will confirm. On the upside, though, break of 4.387 resistance, will turn favor to the case the natural gas has bottomed out in medium term. Further break of 4.575 will confirm this case and bring strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart

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