Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas dropped further to as low as 4.841 and met mentioned target of 61.8% retracement of 4.157 to 61.08 at 4.902 At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline could still be seen. However, we'd expect diminishing downside momentum as it approaches 100% projection of 6.108 to 5.06 from 5.68 at 4.632 and bring strong rebound. Above 5.204 support turned resistance will now be an early sign that correction from 6.108 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 5.680 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Pull-back from 6.108 is viewed as a correction to rise from 2.409 only. In other words, rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart