Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas' decline resumed and dropped to as low as 4.667 so far. While further decline would still be seen, we'd continue to expect strong support at 100% projection of 6.108 to 5.06 from 5.68 at 4.632, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 2.409 to 61.08 at 4.695 to conclude the correction from 6.108 and bring strong rebound. Above 4.894 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 5.68 resistance. However, sustained trading below 4.632 projection level will dampen our view and turn focus to 4.157 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Pull-back from 6.108 is viewed as a correction to rise from 2.409 only. In other words, rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart