Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas' decline extended further to as low as 4.54 and the break of 100% projection of 6.108 to 5.06 from 5.68 at 4.632 indicates that deeper decline is underway. Intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as 4.79 minor resistance holds and further fall could be seen to 4.157 support. On the upside, above 4.79 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 5.06 support turned resistance is needed to be the first signal to indicate that natural gas has bottomed. Otherwise, short term risk will remain on the downside.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Pull-back from 6.108 is viewed as a correction to rise from 2.409 only. In other words, rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart