Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas dropped further as expected and reached as low as 4.739 last week but stabilized there and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. Note again that price actions from 6.108 are treated as correction in the larger rally only. Hence, even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 100% projection of 6.108 to 5.06 from 5.68 at 4.632, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 2.409 to 61.08 at 4.695, to conclude the correction and bring another rally. One the upside, break of 5.204 support turned resistance will now be an early sign that correction from 6.108 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 5.680 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Pull-back from 6.108 is viewed as a correction to rise from 2.409 only. In other words, rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Monthly Chart