Comex Silver (SI)

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, an intraday low is possibly in place at 14.65, just ahead of 161.8% projection of 19.5 to 16.765 from 18.925 at 14.5 and some more consolidations would be seen. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited below 16.95 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 14.65 will target medium term trend line support at 14.2 level. Decisive break there will indicate that downside momentum is still strong and should set the stage for 12.435 key support next.

In the bigger picture, silver's medium term rise from 8.4 has possibly completed at 19.50 already, after just missing mentioned 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. As noted before, such rise is viewed as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Fall from 19.50 is possibly the third leg of such consolidation pattern. We'd expect such fall to extend beyond 12.435 support to confirm this case and target a new low below 8.4 eventually. On the upside, above 16.765 support turned resistance is now needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

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