Comex Silver (SI)

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line again, intraday bias is turned neutral. As noted before, even in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance at 16.95 to conclude the recovery from 14.65 and bring resumption of the whole fall from 19.50. Below 15.675 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 14.65 low first. However, note that strong break of 16.95 resistance will argue that whole fall from 19.50 has completed and stronger rally could then be seen towards 18.925 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, silver's medium term rise from 8.4 has possibly completed at 19.50 already, after just missing mentioned 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. As noted before, such rise is viewed as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Fall from 19.50 is possibly the third leg of such consolidation pattern. We'd expect such fall to extend beyond 12.435 support to confirm this case and target a new low below 8.4 eventually.

On the upside, however, note that decisive break of 16.765 resistance will argue that whole fall from 19.50 has completed with three waves down to 14.65, after missing 161.8% projection of 19.50 to 16.765 from 18.925 at 14.50. The corrective structure will in turn argue that another rise to 19.55/21.44 resistance zone might be seen before silver tops out in medium term.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart