Comex Silver (SI)

No change in Silver's outlook. choppy recovery from 14.65 might have completed at 16.56 already. Below 15.60 minor support will bring deeper fall to retest 14.65 first. Break will confirm that fall from 18.925 has resumed. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 16.95 to conclude the recovery from 14.65 and bring resumption of the whole fall from 19.50.

In the bigger picture, silver's medium term rise from 8.4 has possibly completed at 19.50 already, after just missing mentioned 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. As noted before, such rise is viewed as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Fall from 19.50 is possibly the third leg of such consolidation pattern. We'd expect such fall to extend beyond 12.435 support to confirm this case and target a new low below 8.4 eventually.

On the upside, however, note that decisive break of 16.765 resistance will argue that whole fall from 19.50 has completed with three waves down to 14.65, after missing 161.8% projection of 19.50 to 16.765 from 18.925 at 14.50. The corrective structure will in turn argue that another rise to 19.55/21.44 resistance zone might be seen before silver tops out in medium term.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart