Comex Silver (SI)

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in silver is turned neutral again. Outlook remains unchanged. While further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 16.95 resistance to conclude the corrective rise form 14.65. Below 15.60 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest of 14.65 low first. However, strong break of 16.95 resistance will indicate that fall from 18.925, as well as that from 19.50, has completed and will turn outlook bullish for retesting 18.925/19.50 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, silver's medium term rise from 8.4 has possibly completed at 19.50 already, after just missing mentioned 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. As noted before, such rise is viewed as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Fall from 19.50 is possibly the third leg of such consolidation pattern. We'd expect such fall to extend beyond 12.435 support to confirm this case and target a new low below 8.4 eventually. On the upside, however, note that decisive break of 16.95 resistance will argue that whole fall from 19.50 has completed with three waves down to 14.65, after missing 161.8% projection of 19.50 to 16.765 from 18.925 at 14.50. The corrective structure will in turn argue that another rise to 19.55/21.44 resistance zone would be seen before silver tops out in medium term.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart