Comex Silver (SI)

With 4 hours MACD dropped below signal line, intraday bias in silver is turned neutral and some retreat might be seen. Nevertheless, as noted before, hole decline from 18.925 might have completed with three waves down to 14.65 already. Further rise is still in favor to 100% projection of 14.65 to 16.56 from 15.61 at 17.525 next and break will target 161.8% projection at 18.708. On the downside, break of 15.61 support is needed to indicate that rise from 14.65 is finished. Otherwise, we'd expect more rally for a retest of 18.925/19.50 resistance zone eventually.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 14.65 dampened our bearish view that silver has topped at 19.50 already. Silver is still holding above medium term rising trend line support. Fall from 19.50 might be just a correction that's completed with three waves down to 14.65. Nevertheless, there is no change in the broader view that medium term rise from 8.4 is merely part of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 (2008 high). Hence, even in case of a new high above 19.50, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as silver enters into 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 15.61 support though, will revive the bearish case that silver has already topped out and will turn focus back to medium term trend line support instead.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart