Comex Silver (SI)

Silver edged higher to 17.66 but failed to sustain above 17.525 projection level and retreated sharply. Intraday bias remains neutral and we might see more consolidations first. Nevertheless, rise from 14.65 is still in favor to continue as long as 15.61 support holds. Sustained break of 17.66 will target 161.8% projection of 14.65 to 16.56 from 15.61 at 18.708. However, break of 15.61 support will indicate that rise from 14.65 has completed. The three wave structure will revive that case that recent fall from 19.50 is still in progress for another low below 14.65.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 14.65 dampened our bearish view that silver has topped at 19.50 already. Silver is still holding above medium term rising trend line support. Fall from 19.50 might be just a correction that's completed with three waves down to 14.65. Nevertheless, there is no change in the broader view that medium term rise from 8.4 is merely part of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 (2008 high). Hence, even in case of a new high above 19.50, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as silver enters into 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 15.61 support though, will revive the bearish case that silver has already topped out and will turn focus back to medium term trend line support instead.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart