Comex Silver (SI)

Silver's fall resumed after recovery was limited at 16.95 by 4 hours 55 EMA and dived to as low as 14.65 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline should be seen to medium term trend line support at 14.2 level, which is close to 161.8% projection of 19.5 to 16.765 from 18.925 at 14.5). Some support might be seen there and bring recovery first. Above 15.40 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But after all, upside should be limited below 16.95 resistance and bring fall resumption. Also, note that decisive break of medium term trend line support will indicate that downside momentum is still strong and should set the stage for 12.435 key support next.

In the bigger picture, silver's medium term rise from 8.4 has possibly completed at 19.50 already, after just missing mentioned 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. As noted before, such rise is viewed as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Fall from 19.50 is possibly the third leg of such consolidation pattern. We'd expect such fall to extend beyond 12.435 support to confirm this case and target a new low below 8.4 eventually. On the upside, above 16.765 support turned resistance is now needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart