Comex Silver (SI)

Silver retreated to as low as 15.60 last week but rebounded strongly since then. The strength of the rebound dampened our bearish view that choppy recovery from 14.65 is finished. Nevertheless, note that at this point, we're still treating price actions from 14.65 as a correction to fall fro 18.925 only. Hence, even in case of further rise, upside should be limited by 16.95 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 15.60 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest of 14.65 low first. However, strong break of 16.95 resistance will indicate that fall from 18.925, as well as that from 19.50, has completed and will turn outlook bullish for retesting 18.925/19.50 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, silver's medium term rise from 8.4 has possibly completed at 19.50 already, after just missing mentioned 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. As noted before, such rise is viewed as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Fall from 19.50 is possibly the third leg of such consolidation pattern. We'd expect such fall to extend beyond 12.435 support to confirm this case and target a new low below 8.4 eventually. On the upside, however, note that decisive break of 16.95 resistance will argue that whole fall from 19.50 has completed with three waves down to 14.65, after missing 161.8% projection of 19.50 to 16.765 from 18.925 at 14.50. The corrective structure will in turn argue that another rise to 19.55/21.44 resistance zone would be seen before silver tops out in medium term.

In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart