Comex Silver (SI)

Silver's rebound from 14.65 extended further to as low as 17.515 last week, just inch below mentioned 100% projection of 14.65 to 16.56 from 15.61 at 17.525. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise is still in favor. The strong break of 16.765 resistance last week argued that whole fall from 19.50 has completed with three waves down to 14.65 already. Further rise could now be seen towards 161.8% projection at 18.708. On the downside, below 17.055 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But rise from 14.65 is still in favor to continue as long as 15.61 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 14.65 dampened our bearish view that silver has topped at 19.50 already. Silver is still holding above medium term rising trend line support. Fall from 19.50 might be just a correction that's completed with three waves down to 14.65. Nevertheless, there is no change in the broader view that medium term rise from 8.4 is merely part of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 (2008 high). Hence, even in case of a new high above 19.50, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as silver enters into 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 15.61 support though, will revive the bearish case that silver has already topped out and will turn focus back to medium term trend line support instead.

In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart