Comex Silver (SI)

Silver edged higher to 17.665 last week but failed to sustain above 100% projection of 14.65 to 16.56 from 15.61 at 17.52 and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some more consolidations, possibly with pull back to trend line support (now at 16.38). However, note that rise from 14.65 is still expected to continue as long as 15.61 support holds. Above 17.665 will target 161.8% projection at 18.708. However, note that firm break of 15.61 support will indicate that rise from 14.65 has completed. The three wave structure will revive that case that recent fall from 19.50 is still in progress for another low below 14.65.

In the bigger picture, as silver is still trading well above medium term rising trend line, rally from 8.4 might not be over yet. Fall from 19.50 might be just a correction that's completed with three waves down to 14.65. Hence, above high above 19.50 could be seen. Nevertheless, there is no change in the broader view that medium term rise from 8.4 is merely part of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 (2008 high). Hence, even in case of a new high above 19.50, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as silver enters into 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 15.61 support though, will revive the bearish case that silver has already topped out and will turn focus back to medium term trend line support instead.

In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart